页岩气未开发区单井可采储量评估方法

doi:10.7623/syxb202005005

石油学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (5): 565-573.DOI: 10.7623/syxb202005005

页岩气未开发区单井可采储量评估方法

毕海滨¹, 孟昊¹, 高日丽¹, 郑婧¹, 徐小林¹, 鞠秀娟¹, 牛伟², 张劲³, 周明庆¹, 赵丽华¹

1. 中国石油勘探开发研究院北京 100083;
2. 中国石油浙江油田公司勘探开发研究院浙江杭州 310000;
3. 中国石油西南油气田公司勘探开发研究院四川成都 610041

收稿日期:2019-02-24 修回日期:2019-11-22 出版日期:2020-05-25 发布日期:2020-06-08
通讯作者: 孟昊,男,1985年7月生,2007年获中国石油大学(北京)学士学位,2016年获中国石油大学(北京)博士学位,现为中国石油勘探开发研究院工程师,主要从事油气储量评估工作。Email:hmeng@petrochina.com.cn
作者简介:毕海滨,男,1965年3月生,1986年获大庆石油学院学士学位,2008年获中国石油勘探开发研究院博士学位,现为中国石油勘探开发研究院高级工程师,主要从事油气储量评估工作。Email:bhb@petrochina.com.cn
基金资助:
中国石油天然气股份有限公司勘探前期项目（101002kt0b30090021001）资助。

Evaluation method of recoverable reserves of single well in undeveloped area of shale gas

Bi Haibin¹, Meng Hao¹, Gao Rili¹, Zheng Jing¹, Xu Xiaolin¹, Ju Xiujuan¹, Niu Wei², Zhang Jin³, Zhou Mingqing¹, Zhao Lihua¹

1. PetroChina Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration and Development, Beijing 100083, China;
2. Research Institute of Exploration and Development, PetroChina Zhejiang Oilfield Company, Zhejiang Hangzhou 310000, China;
3. Research Institute of Exploration and Development, PetroChina Southwest Oil and Gas Field Company, Sichuan Chengdu 610041, China

Received:2019-02-24 Revised:2019-11-22 Online:2020-05-25 Published:2020-06-08

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

页岩气作为非常规气藏，储量评估结果受地质特征和工程因素的双重影响。已开发区在产井的单井最终可采储量（EUR）通常根据产量递减规律直接评估。北美页岩气勘探开发实践表明，同一地质区带内，在相似的钻完井技术条件下，不同年度完钻井的单井最终可采储量的统计分布具有可重复性，其累积概率曲线通常服从对数正态分布。因此，可以选取生产时间较长、评估结果较为准确的在产井作为类比井，分析其单井最终可采储量的统计分布规律，用于类比评估未开发区单井最终可采储量。实际工作中，需要根据已开发区的非均质性（P₁₀/P₉₀），结合地质特征与工程因素的差异将在产井划分为不同区带，建立不同分区的单井最终可采储量概率统计分布图版，类比评估与在产井相邻的、钻完井技术条件相似的未开发区单井最终可采储量。未开发区单井最终可采储量取值方法包括Swanson法、P^法和修正系数法等，各种取值方法应用条件有差异，应根据勘探开发进展和认识程度合理选值，为项目决策提供可靠依据。

关键词: 页岩气, 未开发区, 单井最终可采储量, 类比法, 概率统计法, 对数正态分布

Abstract:

As an unconventional gas reservoir, the reserves assessment of shale gas are affected by both geological characteristics and engineering factors. The estimate ultimate recovery (EUR)of a single producing well in the developed zone is usually directly assessed based on the production decline law. The practices of shale gas exploration and development in North American show that within the same geological zone and under the similar technical conditions of well drilling and completion, the EUR of a single well completed in different years exhibits repeatable statistical distribution, and its cumulative probability curve usually follows lognormal distribution. Therefore, producing wells with long production time and more accurate evaluation results can be selected for analogical analysis, so as to further analyze the statistical distribution law of the single well EUR for the analogous evaluation of the single well EUR in the undeveloped area. In practice, it is necessary to divide the production wells into different plays based on the heterogeneity of the developed zone (P₁₀/P₉₀), taking into account the differences between geological characteristics and engineering factors, aiming to set up the chart of single well EUR probability statistical distribution in different zones and analogically evaluate single well EUR in an undeveloped area adjacent to a producing well when using the similar drilling and completion technology. The value taking methods of single well EUR in the undeveloped zone includes the Swanson method, P^ method, and correction coefficient method. The application conditions of various value taking methods are different, and values should be selected reasonably according to the progress of exploration and development and the degree of understanding, thus providing a reliable basis for project decision.

Key words: shale gas, undeveloped area, single well EUR, analogical method, probability statistic method, lognormal distribution

中图分类号:

TE15

毕海滨, 孟昊, 高日丽, 郑婧, 徐小林, 鞠秀娟, 牛伟, 张劲, 周明庆, 赵丽华. 页岩气未开发区单井可采储量评估方法[J]. 石油学报, 2020, 41(5): 565-573.

Bi Haibin, Meng Hao, Gao Rili, Zheng Jing, Xu Xiaolin, Ju Xiujuan, Niu Wei, Zhang Jin, Zhou Mingqing, Zhao Lihua. Evaluation method of recoverable reserves of single well in undeveloped area of shale gas[J]. Acta Petrolei Sinica, 2020, 41(5): 565-573.

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页岩气未开发区单井可采储量评估方法

Evaluation method of recoverable reserves of single well in undeveloped area of shale gas

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