基于储量增长模型和概率分析的大油气田储量增长评价方法及其在中东地区的应用

doi:10.7623/syxb201403008

石油学报 ›› 2014, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (3): 469-479.DOI: 10.7623/syxb201403008

基于储量增长模型和概率分析的大油气田储量增长评价方法及其在中东地区的应用

吴义平¹, 田作基¹, 童晓光², 边海光¹, 张艳敏³, 薛宗安⁴, 赵丽敏¹

1. 中国石油勘探开发研究院北京 100083;
2. 中国石油海外勘探开发公司北京 100007;
3. 中国石油化工股份有限公司河南油田分公司地质录井公司河南南阳 473132;
4. 中国地质大学能源学院北京 100083

收稿日期:2013-10-08 修回日期:2014-01-02 出版日期:2014-05-25 发布日期:2014-04-11
通讯作者: 吴义平，男，1973年12月生，2004年获长江大学学士学位，2010年获中国石油大学（北京）硕士学位，现为中国石油勘探开发研究院海外综合业务部工程师，主要从事石油地质综合研究。Email：wuyiping01@petrochina.com.cn
作者简介:吴义平，男，1973年12月生，2004年获长江大学学士学位，2010年获中国石油大学（北京）硕士学位，现为中国石油勘探开发研究院海外综合业务部工程师，主要从事石油地质综合研究。Email：wuyiping01@petrochina.com.cn
基金资助:
国家重大科技专项（2011ZX05028-001）和中国石油天然气股份有限公司重大科技专项（2013E-0501）资助。

Evaluation method for increase of reserves in large oil-gas fields based on reserves growth model & probability analysis and its application in Middle East

Wu Yiping¹, Tian Zuoji¹, Tong Xiaoguang², Bian Haiguang¹, Zhang Yanmin³, Xue Zong'an⁴, Zhao Limin¹

1. PetroChina Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration & Development, Beijing 100083, China;
2. PetroChina International Exploration & Development Company, Beijing 100007, China;
3. Geologic Logging Company, Sinopec Henan Oilfield Branch Company, Nanyang 473132, China;
4. School of Energy Resources, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China

Received:2013-10-08 Revised:2014-01-02 Online:2014-05-25 Published:2014-04-11

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

全球每年约有70% 的新增油气储量来源于已发现大油气田的储量增长。基于单个大油气田储量增长因素的概率分析和大油气田产、储量统计分析，提出了储量增长评价新方法，建立了中东地区大油气田储量增长模型，并进行了潜力预测。研究表明，预测截至2042年Halfaya油气田储量增长的因素为提高采收率、储量升级、油田扩边、发现新层系，所引起的石油储量增长分别为30.8× 10⁸桶、7.5×10⁸桶、4.3×10⁸桶和3.2×10⁸桶，所引起的天然气储量增长分别为0.8×10⁸桶油当量、2.7×10⁸桶油当量、2.7×10⁸桶油当量和5.7×10⁸桶油当量；中东地区大油田和大气田储量增长变化趋势较为相似，储量增长高峰期主要位于开发早期和中期；截至2042年中东地区167个大油田储量增长潜力为2 103×10⁸桶，64个大气田储量增长潜力为1 018×10⁸桶油当量；用同一个样本点对概率法和统计法的研究结果进行了验证，两种方法吻合程度较高。该方法通过解剖个体特征，分析整体规律，由已知推测未知，实现了统计法、概率法和地质分析法的有机结合，可以进一步用于全球大油气田储量增长研究。

关键词: 储量增长, 概率分析, 储量升级, 提高采收率, 累积储量增长系数

Abstract:

In the whole world, approximately 70 percent of new oil and gas reserves are contributed by the increase of reserves in large oil-gas fields discovered every year. In order to study the variation law of reserves growth of large oil-gas fields in the Middle East, a new evaluation method is put forward based on probability analysis of reserves growth factor for a large oil-gas field and statistical analysis of the output and reserves of large oil-gas fields. Moreover, reserves growth models are established for large oil-gas fields in the Middle East, as predicting the growth potentiality. Results show that reserves growth factors of the Halfaya oilfield in 2042 mainly include enhanced oil recovery, reserves promotion, oilfield expansion and discovery of new reservoirs, which leads to the increased amounts of oil reserves are 3.08, 0.75, 0.43 and 0.32 BBOE respectively, and those of gas reserves are 0.08, 0.27, 0.27 and 0.57 BBOE respectively. In the Middle East, the reserves growth trend of large oil fields is similar to that of large gas fields, and growth peaks mainly appeared in early and middle stages of the oil-gas fields exploitation. It is predicted that in the next 30 years the amounts of the potential reserves growth of 167 large oil fields in the Middle East will up to 201.3 BBOE, while those of the potential growth of 64 large gas fields is 101.8 BBOE. The same sample point is used to verify the research results obtained by probability and statistics methods, both of which fit with each other well. Through analyzing individual characteristics and overall laws, and deducing the unknown from the known, this evaluation method integrates probability and statistics methods with geologic analysis, and can be further applied to investigate the reserves growth of global oil-gas fields.

Key words: reserves growth, probability analysis, reserves promotion, enhanced oil recovery, cumulative reserves growth factor

中图分类号:

TE16

吴义平, 田作基, 童晓光, 边海光, 张艳敏, 薛宗安, 赵丽敏. 基于储量增长模型和概率分析的大油气田储量增长评价方法及其在中东地区的应用[J]. 石油学报, 2014, 35(3): 469-479.

Wu Yiping, Tian Zuoji, Tong Xiaoguang, Bian Haiguang, Zhang Yanmin, Xue Zong'an, Zhao Limin. Evaluation method for increase of reserves in large oil-gas fields based on reserves growth model & probability analysis and its application in Middle East[J]. ACTA PETROLEI SINICA, 2014, 35(3): 469-479.

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基于储量增长模型和概率分析的大油气田储量增长评价方法及其在中东地区的应用

Evaluation method for increase of reserves in large oil-gas fields based on reserves growth model & probability analysis and its application in Middle East

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