关键词: 长输管线, 失效分析, 故障树法, 模糊集理论, 专家判断, 模糊失效率

Abstract: Fault tree analysis (FTA) is a very powerful technique and widely used for evaluating the safety and reliability of complex system.The failure of oil and gas pipeline was analyzed by fault tree analysis in this paper.According to the two major failure modes of leak and rupture,the fault tree of pipeline was established.And 52 minimal cut sets have been achieved with qualitative analysis,while the failure probability of top event and the criticality analysis of basic events could be calculated with quantitative analysis.In conventional fault tree analysis,the probability of ambiguous and imprecise events among basic events is treated as precise values.But this method can't reflect the real situation of system well,because there are many variable factors for affecting the basic events.To overcome this disadvantage,a novel technique is proposed by combining expert judgement and fuzzy set theories to evaluate the probability of events.As an example,the failure rate of bad installation quality of oil and gas pipeline was assessed by using the proposed method.The result shows that the fuzzy failure rate of the pipeline is 2.3545×10^-4.The method given in this article is effective to treat failure probability of fuzzy events.

Key words: oil and gas pipeline, failure analysis, fault tree analysis, fuzzy set theory, expert judgement, fuzzy failure rate