关键词: 世界石油产量, 修正Hubbert模型, 产量峰值, 临界点, 永久性递减

Abstract:

The curve of the world oil production has been shifted from the idealized Hubbert curve since 1973, when the crude oil production was restricted organically by OPEC. The actual curve took on the characters of "partitioned, truncated and shifted". According to the modified Hubbert Model, there might be multiple peak points of oil production during OPEC's constraint action. So, the classical concept, "peak point", would be dimmed on significance.It would be replaced by the critical point, on which the world oil production will be changed from plateau to permanent decline. The research suggested that the world ultimate recoverable reserves might be 395.5 billion tons,the turning point of the world oil production might arise during 2026-2032 period, and the oil production on the point would be about 4.69~6.58 billion tons per year,as well as the exploitation degree of reserves would be as high as 67.7%. If taking a more conservative estimation of 291 billion tons of total ultimate volume,then the milestone of oil production decline may arise in 2013. This will be a great baptism for the continual development of oil companies.

Key words: world oil production, modified Hubbert Model, peak point of oil production, critical point, permanent decline