关键词: 电潜泵, 寿命, 预测, 灰色系统, 随机过程, 模型

Abstract: Gray GM(1,1)forecasting model and Markov model are two kinds of forecasting methods which are widely used.However,they have different features because of their different ways of processing data.This paper is based on the gray ststem theory and gives a gray-Markov forecasting model,which has combined the advantages both of gray GM(1,1) forecasting model and markov one.It widens the application range of gray forecast,particularly,the obtained results are more precise than those by other models for data sequences with heavy random fluctuation.The result of forecasting the work life-span of electric submersible pump is of satisfaction.The results show that the method has high precision and powerful practicality.

Key words: electric submersible pump, forecasting work-life, gray system, radom process, model