凸集模型非概率可靠性在储气库不活动断层滑移评估中的应用

doi:10.7623/syxb201403022

石油学报 ›› 2014, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (3): 577-583.DOI: 10.7623/syxb201403022

凸集模型非概率可靠性在储气库不活动断层滑移评估中的应用

于本福^1,2, 闫相祯^1,2, 杨恒林³, 许志倩², 杨秀娟^1,2, 冯耀荣⁴

1. 中国石油大学储运与建筑工程学院山东青岛 266580;
2. 中国石油大学油气CAE技术研究中心山东青岛 266580;
3. 中国石油集团钻井工程技术研究院北京 100097;
4. 中国石油集团石油管工程技术研究院陕西西安 710065

收稿日期:2013-12-17 修回日期:2014-03-19 出版日期:2014-05-25 发布日期:2014-04-11
通讯作者: 闫相祯，男，1956年5月生，1982年毕业于华东石油学院机械系力学专业，1987年获北京科技大学固体力学专业硕士学位，现为中国石油大学（华东）教授、博士生导师，主要从事油气工程力学方面的教学与科研工作。Email：yanxzh@163.com
作者简介:于本福，男，1987年11月生，2009年毕业于中国石油大学（华东），现为中国石油大学（华东）储运与建筑工程学院博士研究生，主要从事储油库、储气库和石油管柱力学及安全可靠性研究。Email：yubenfu123@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目（No.51105381、No.51374228）、国家重大科技专项（2011ZX05036）和山东省优秀中青年科学家科研奖励基金项目（BS2012ZZ012）资助。

Non-probabilistic reliability analysis of dead fault slip in underground gas storage based on convex model

Yu Benfu^1,2, Yan Xiangzhen^1,2, Yang Henglin³, Xu Zhiqian², Yang Xiujuan^1,2, Feng Yaorong⁴

1. College of Pipeline and Civil Engineering, China University of Petroleum, Qingdao 266580, China;
2. Oil and Gas CAE Technology Research Center, China University of Petroleum, Qingdao 266580, China;
3. CNPC Drilling Research Institute, Beijing 100097, China;
4. CNPC Tubular Goods Research Institute, Xi'an 710065, China

Received:2013-12-17 Revised:2014-03-19 Online:2014-05-25 Published:2014-04-11

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

将凸集模型引入到储气库不活动断层滑移非概率可靠度分析中，根据断层剪切破坏的特点建立断层滑移极限状态函数，并在断层滑移可靠度计算过程中对极限状态函数进行线性近似计算，建立储气库断层滑移非概率可靠度计算模型。利用上述方法对中国某储气库注气后的断层滑移可靠性进行了分析，并将该方法与Monte-Carlo方法的计算结果进行对比，验证了模型的计算精度，同时研究了断层位置处的孔隙压力、断层倾角、地应力不均匀系数对断层滑移可靠度的影响。计算结果表明：非概率可靠性计算模型在求解断层滑移可靠度时不需要大量的参数样本和固定的概率分布函数，具有较好的实用性，并能满足实际工程的计算需求；断层滑移可靠度随着断层位置孔隙压力、地应力不均匀系数的增大而减小，随着断层倾角θ的增大先减小后增大，并且当断层倾角θ与岩石内摩擦角ø的关系为θ∈[min（45°+ ø/2），max（45°+ ø/2）]时，断层滑移可靠度最小。

关键词: 地下储气库, 断层滑移, 凸集模型, 非概率可靠性, 极限状态函数

Abstract:

This study introduces a convex model for non-probabilistic reliability analysis of dead fault slip in underground gas storage. A limit state function of fault slip is established according to the characteristics of fault shear failure, and linear approximation of the limit state function is performed to calculate the reliability of fault slip. The proposed model is used for an example analysis of the reliability of dead fault slip in an underground gas storage after gas injection. The results are compared with data obtained using a Monte-Carlo method for verifying the calculation accuracy of this model. Additionally, the reliability of fault slip is evaluated as a function of pore pressure, fault dip, and non-uniformity coefficient of crustal stress. Results show the proposed model needs no large number of parameter samples or fixed probability distribution function for analyzing the reliability of dead fault slip, which has good practicability and meets the actual engineering demands. The reliability of fault slip undergoes declines with increasing pore pressure and non-uniformity coefficient of crustal stress, and exhibits declines followed by increases with increasing fault slip. The reliability of fault slip is minimal if θ∈[min(45°+ ø/2),max(45°+ ø/2)] (θ is fault slip, and ø is internal friction angle of rocks).

Key words: underground gas storage, fault slip, convex model, non-probabilistic reliability, limit state function

中图分类号:

TE822

于本福, 闫相祯, 杨恒林, 许志倩, 杨秀娟, 冯耀荣. 凸集模型非概率可靠性在储气库不活动断层滑移评估中的应用[J]. 石油学报, 2014, 35(3): 577-583.

Yu Benfu, Yan Xiangzhen, Yang Henglin, Xu Zhiqian, Yang Xiujuan, Feng Yaorong. Non-probabilistic reliability analysis of dead fault slip in underground gas storage based on convex model[J]. ACTA PETROLEI SINICA, 2014, 35(3): 577-583.

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凸集模型非概率可靠性在储气库不活动断层滑移评估中的应用

Non-probabilistic reliability analysis of dead fault slip in underground gas storage based on convex model

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