基于逆高斯过程的腐蚀油气管道维修策略

doi:10.7623/syxb201703013

石油学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (3): 356-362.DOI: 10.7623/syxb201703013

基于逆高斯过程的腐蚀油气管道维修策略

张新生, 李亚云, 王小完

西安建筑科技大学管理学院陕西西安 710055

收稿日期:2016-06-28 修回日期:2016-12-30 出版日期:2017-03-25 发布日期:2017-04-07
通讯作者: 张新生,男,1978年8月生,2004年获西安建筑科技大学学士学位,2009年获西安电子科技大学博士学位,现为西安建筑科技大学管理学院教授,主要从事管道风险评估理论、建模与方法、智能信息处理等方面的教学和科研工作。Email:xinsheng.zh@outlook.com
作者简介:张新生,男,1978年8月生,2004年获西安建筑科技大学学士学位,2009年获西安电子科技大学博士学位,现为西安建筑科技大学管理学院教授,主要从事管道风险评估理论、建模与方法、智能信息处理等方面的教学和科研工作。Email:xinsheng.zh@outlook.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目（No.61271278）、陕西省社会科学基金项目（2015R13）、陕西省自然科学基金项目（2016JM6023）和陕西省教育厅自然专项基金项目（16JK1465）资助。

Maintenance strategy of corroded oil-gas pipeline based on inverse Gaussian process

Zhang Xinsheng, Li Yayun, Wang Xiaowan

School of Management, Xi'an University of Architecture and Technology, Shaanxi Xi'an 710055, China

Received:2016-06-28 Revised:2016-12-30 Online:2017-03-25 Published:2017-04-07

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

对腐蚀油气管道系统的剩余寿命进行预测可以为优化维修决策方案提供依据。考虑到油气管道不同状态下的腐蚀，将逆高斯随机过程理论引入油气管道腐蚀评估领域，提出逆高斯-状态空间油气管道腐蚀退化过程模型和维修决策优化模型。首先根据其腐蚀机理建立逆高斯-状态空间退化过程模型，运用经验最大化算法与粒子滤波算法相结合的参数估计方法对模型中的参数进行求解，得出腐蚀油气管道的剩余寿命分布函数和概率密度函数；进而建立腐蚀油气管道的维修决策优化模型，计算出模型最优的维修更换时间和最小费用，制定出较合理的维修方案；最后用腐蚀油气管道的实验数据对模型进行验证。应用实例表明，优化模型用于油气管道腐蚀评估和维修优化是可行的。

关键词: 油气管道, 逆高斯过程, 状态空间模型, 剩余寿命, 维修决策

Abstract:

The remaining life of corroded oil and gas pipeline system was predicted to provide a basis for optimizing maintenance decision scheme. Taking the corrosion of corroded pipeline under different states into consideration, the inverse Gaussian random process theory was introduced to the oil-gas pipeline corrosion assessment field, so as to propose the inverse Gaussian-state space oil-gas pipeline corrosion degradation process model and maintenance decision optimization model. Firstly, according to corrosion mechanism, the inverse Gaussian-state space degradation process model was established, of which the model parameters were solved using the parameter estimation method in combination with empirical maximum algorithm and particle filtering algorithm, so as to obtain the remaining life distribution function and probability density function of corroded oil-gas pipelines. Then a maintenance decision optimization model of corroded oil and gas pipelines was created to calculate the optimal maintenance and replacement time and minimum costs as well as develop a more reasonable maintenance scheme. Finally, the model was validated by the experimental data of corroded oil-gas pipeline. The case results showed that the model was applicable for oil and gas pipeline corrosion assessment and maintenance optimization.

Key words: oil and gas pipeline, inverse Gaussian process, state space model, remaining life, maintenance decision

中图分类号:

TE988

张新生, 李亚云, 王小完. 基于逆高斯过程的腐蚀油气管道维修策略[J]. 石油学报, 2017, 38(3): 356-362.

Zhang Xinsheng, Li Yayun, Wang Xiaowan. Maintenance strategy of corroded oil-gas pipeline based on inverse Gaussian process[J]. Acta Petrolei Sinica, 2017, 38(3): 356-362.

参考文献

[1] 顾乐民. 中国石油产量历史回顾与未来趋势[J].石油学报,2016,37(2):280-288.
GU Lemin.Historical review and future tendency of oil production in China[J].Acta Petrolei Sinica,2016,37(2):280-288.
[2] 郭秋麟,陈宁生,刘成林,等.油气资源评价方法研究进展与新一代评价软件系统[J].石油学报,2015,36(10):1305-1314.
GUO Qiulin,CHEN Ningsheng,LIU Chenglin,et al.Research advance of hydrocarbon resource assessment method and a new assessment software system[J].Acta Petrolei Sinica,2015,36(10):1305-1314.
[3] ALAMILA J L,SOSA E.Stochastic modelling of corrosion damage propagation in active sites from field inspection data[J].Corrosion Science,2008,50(7):1811-1819.
[4] VALOR A,CALEYO F,ALFONSO L,et al.Stochastic modeling of pitting corrosion:a new model for initiation and growth of multiple corrosion pits[J].Corrosion Science,2007,49(2):559-579.
[5] GASPERIN M,JURICIC D,BOSKOSKI P,et al.Model-based prognostics of gear health using stochastic dynamical models[J].Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing,2011,25(2):537-548.
[6] PENG Weiwen,LI Yanfeng,YANG Yuanjian,et al.Inverse Gaussian process models for degradation analysis:a Bayesian perspective[J].Reliability Engineering & System Safety,2014,130:175-189.
[7] WANG Xiao,XU Dihua.An inverse Gaussian process model for degradation data[J].Technometrics,2010,52(2):188-197.
[8] 付建民,赵振洋,陈国明,等.液相管道流量与压力对小孔泄漏速率的影响[J].石油学报,2016,37(2):257-265.
FU Jianmin,ZHAO Zhenyang,CHEN Guoming,et al.Influences of liquid pipeline flow and pressure on small-hole leakage rate[J].Acta Petrolei Sinica,2016,37(2):257-265.
[9] 张鹏,彭杨.考虑随机变量相关性的腐蚀管道失效概率[J].石油学报,2016,37(10):1293-1301.
ZHANG Peng,PENG Yang.Failure probability of corroded pipeline considering random variables correlation[J].Acta Petrolei Sinica,2016,37(10):1293-1301.
[10] WANG Xiao.Wiener processes with random effects for degradation data[J].Journal of Multivariate Analysis,2010,101(2):340-351.
[11] 樊红东,胡昌华,陈茂银,等.基于退化数据的最优预测维护决策支持方法[J].华中科技大学学报( 自然科学版),2009,37(增刊I):45-48.
FAN Hongdong,HU Changhua,CHEN Maoyin,et al.A degradation measurement based decision support method for optimal predictive maintenance policy[J].Journal of Huazhong University of Science and Technology(Nature Science Edition),2009,37(S1):45-48.
[12] 任淑红,薛飞,余伟炜,等.基于性能退化的热老化可靠性剩余寿命预测方法[J].核动力工程,2013,34(5):96-99.
REN Shuhong,XUE Fei,YU Weiwei,et al.Reliability residual-life prediction method for thermal aging based on performance degradation[J].Nuclear Power Engineering,2013,34(5):96-99.
[13] 司小胜,胡昌华,周东华.带测量误差的非线性退化过程建模与剩余寿命估计[J].自动化学报,2013,39(5):530-541.
SI Xiaosheng,HU Changhua,ZHOU Donghua.Nonlinear degradation process modeling and remaining useful life estimation subject to measurement error[J].Acta Automatica Sinica,2013,39(5):530-541.
[14] 张圣柱,吴宗之.基于风险的长输油气管道选线优化方法[J].石油学报,2014,35(3):570-576.
ZHANG Shengzhu,WU Zongzhi.Risk-based optimization method for long-distance oil and gas transmission pipeline route[J].Acta Petrolei Sinica,2014,35(3):570-576.
[15] 陈亮,胡昌华.Gamma过程退化模型估计中测量误差影响的仿真研究[J].系统仿真技术,2010,6(1):1-5.
CHEN Liang,HU Changhua.Simulation study on the effect of measurement error on estimation of gamma process degradation model[J].System Simulation Technology,2010,6(1):1-5.
[16] 袁赓.油气管道的腐蚀及预测研究[D].大连:大连理工大学,2011.
YUAN Geng.Research of corrosion and its prediction for oil-gas steel pipelines[D].Dalian:Dalian University of Technology,2011.
[17] 张新生,李亚云,王小完.腐蚀油气管道维修策略优化研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2015,25(11):81-86.
ZHANG Xinsheng,LI Yayun,WANG Xiaowan.Study on maintenance strategy optimization of corroded oil-gas pipeline[J].China Safety Science Journal,2015,25(11):81-86.
[18] 翟利波.基于时间序列分析的剩余寿命预测模型[D].西安:西安电子科技大学,2014.
ZHAI Libo.The residual life prediction model based on time series analysis[D].Xi'an:Xidian University,2014.
[19] 李明福,胡昌华,周志杰,等.基于逆高斯过程和证据推理的退化建模方法[J].电光与控制,2015,22(1):92-96.
LI Mingfu,HU Changhua,ZHOU Zhijie,et al.A degradation modeling method based on inverse Gaussian process and evidential reasoning[J].Electronics Optics & Control,2015,22(1):92-96.
[20] 徐廷学,王浩伟,张鑫.EM算法在Wiener过程随机参数的超参数值估计中的应用[J].系统工程与电子技术, 2015,37(3):707-712.
XU Tingxue,WANG Haowei,ZHANG Xin.Application of EM algorithm to estimate hyper parameters of the random parameters of Wiener process[J].Systems Engineering and Electronics,2015,37(3):707-712.
[21] ORCHARD M E,VACHTSEVANOS G J.A particle filtering approach for on-line failure prognosis in a planetary carrier plate[J].International Journal of Fuzzy Logic and Intelligent Systems,2007,7(4):221-227.
[22] 尤明懿.基于状态监测数据的产品寿命预测与预测维护规划方法研究[D].上海:上海交通大学,2012.
YOU Mingyi.Research on methods for condition based product residual life prediction and predictive maintenance scheduling[D].Shanghai:Shanghai Jiaotong University,2012.
[23] 郭生武,袁鹏斌,张十金.输送管线完整性检测、评价及修复技术[M].北京:石油工业出版社,2007.
GUO Shengwu,YUAN Pengbin,ZHANG Shijin.Integrity inspection,evaluation and repairment technology of transport pipelines[M].Beijing:Petroleum Industry Press,2007.
[24] 罗富绪.国外油气管道剩余使用寿命的预测和评估[J].油气储运,2001,20(1):54-56.
LUO Fuxu.Prediction and assessment on the residual service life of foreign oil and gas pipelines translated[J].Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation,2001,20(1):54-56.

基于逆高斯过程的腐蚀油气管道维修策略

Maintenance strategy of corroded oil-gas pipeline based on inverse Gaussian process

PDF

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 15

编辑推荐

Metrics

本文评价

[1]	张圣柱, 吴宗之. 基于风险的长输油气管道选线优化方法[J]. 石油学报, 2014, 35(3): 570-576.
[2]	帅　健刘　惟王俊强张宇坤 . 复合材料缠绕修复管道的应力分析[J]. 石油学报, 2013, 34(2): 372-379.
[3]	崔铭伟曹学文. 腐蚀缺陷对中高强度油气管道失效压力的影响[J]. 石油学报, 2012, 33(6): 1086-1092.
[4]	郝建斌刘建平荆宏远张合印沈飞军佟昊林. 横穿状态下滑坡对管道推力的计算[J]. 石油学报, 2012, 33(6): 1096-1097.
[5]	帅　健　许学瑞　韩克江. 原油储罐检修周期[J]. 石油学报, 2012, 33(1): 157-163.
[6]	罗更生周煜. 含裂纹油气管道可靠性评定方法及敏感性分析[J]. 石油学报, 2011, 32(6): 1083-1087.
[7]	林冬雷宇许可方黄润秋朱勇罗敏陶宏伟. 横向滑坡对管道的影响试验[J]. 石油学报, 2011, 32(4): 728-732.
[8]	帅健, 张春娥, 陈福来. 非线性有限元法用于腐蚀管道失效压力预测[J]. 石油学报, 2008, 29(6): 933-937.
[9]	曲志刚, 靳世久, 封皓, 曾周末, 周琰, 李健. 基于经验模态分解的管道预警系统信号多尺度混沌特性分析方法[J]. 石油学报, 2008, 29(2): 313-316.
[10]	王长龙, 纪凤珠, 王建斌, 左宪章. 油气管道漏磁检测缺陷的三维成像技术[J]. 石油学报, 2007, 28(5): 146-148,152.
[11]	马立平, 李允. 地理信息系统辅助油气管道安全可靠性分析[J]. 石油学报, 2006, 27(3): 126-129.
[12]	李莺莺, 靳世久, 曹丽娜. 油气管道电磁超声法检测的信号处理[J]. 石油学报, 2006, 27(3): 112-114,119.
[13]	赵新伟, 罗金恒, 郑茂盛, 李鹤林, 张华. 弥散型腐蚀损伤管道剩余寿命预测方法[J]. 石油学报, 2006, 27(1): 119-123.
[14]	翁永基. 油气管道泄漏事故的定量风险评价[J]. 石油学报, 2004, 25(5): 108-112.
[15]	魏茂安, 靳世久, 李莺莺, 崔谦. 油气管道缺陷二维轮廓重建及处理技术[J]. 石油学报, 2003, 24(6): 98-101,106.