川渝地区含硫气井H2S释放速率的概率分布模型

doi:10.7623/syxb200905026

石油学报 ›› 2009, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (5): 774-777.DOI: 10.7623/syxb200905026

川渝地区含硫气井H₂S释放速率的概率分布模型

陈胜^1,2, 吴庆善^3,4, 江田汉⁵, 席学军⁵, 郭再富⁵, 王建光⁵

1. 北京大学环境科学与工程学院, 北京 100871;
2. 国务院应急管理办公室, 北京 100017;
3. 中国石油天然气集团公司, 北京 100007;
4. 北京理工大学, 北京 100081;
5. 中国安全生产科学研究院, 北京 100029

收稿日期:2008-09-26 修回日期:2009-01-12 出版日期:2009-09-25 发布日期:2010-05-21
作者简介:陈胜,男,1969年10月生,1995年获华中科技大学硕士学位,现为北京大学环境科学与工程学院在读博士研究生,国务院应急管理办公室高级工程师,主要从事应急管理研究与实践工作.E-mail:chens@mail.gov.cn
基金资助:
国家“十一五”科技支撑计划项目(2006BAK04B04、2006BAK04A09);国家自然科学基金重点项目(No.70841002)联合资助

Probabilistic distribution model for release rates of H²S in sour gas wells of Sichuan and Chongqing areas

CHEN Sheng^1,2, WU Qingshan^3,4, JIANG Tianhan⁵, XI Xuejun⁵, GUO Zaifu⁵, WANG Jianguang⁵

1. College of Environment Science and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China;
2. Emergency Management Office, State Council of the People's Republic of China, Beijing 100017, China;
3. China National Petroleum Corporation, Beijing 100007, China;
4. Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China;
5. China Academy of Safety Science and Technology, Beijing 100029, China

Received:2008-09-26 Revised:2009-01-12 Online:2009-09-25 Published:2010-05-21

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用川渝地区含硫气井H₂S释放速率数据,根据其累积概率分布函数建立概率分布模型.分别用极大似然法和Kolmogor-ove-Smirnov检验方法估计该模型的标度指数和幂律分布区间的下限,并用Monte-Carlo方法随机生成检验样本,进行拟合优度检验.结果表明,川渝地区含硫气井H₂S释放速率的概率分布是非高斯的厚尾分布,一级高危险和二级较高危险含硫气井的累积分布概率远大于高斯分布.若含硫气井H₂S释放速率大于0.0067m³/s,则其服从标度指数为1.539 5的幂律分布,尾部对应一级高危险和二级较高危险含硫气井的概率,主要集中在川东北气矿、川西北气矿、重庆气矿和普光气田等.该模型较合理地描述了川渝地区H₂S释放速率的概率分布.

关键词: 川渝地区, 含硫气井, 硫化氢扩散, 释放速率, 概率分布模型

Abstract: The probabilistic distribution model for the release rates of H₂S in the sour gas wells of Sichuan and Chongqing areas was developed using the complementary cumulative distribution function.The model parameters such as the scaling exponent and the lower bound to the power-law behavior were estimated by the maximum likelihood method and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic method.And the latter was also applied to goodness-of-fit tests with the synthetic data generated by the Monte-Carlo procedure from the hypothesized distribution.The release rates of H₂S in the sour gas wells of Sichuan and Chongqing areas follow a non-gaussian and heavy tailed distribution.The cumulative probability distribution of level 1 and level 2 sour gas wells is much higher than that of the gaussian distribution.The distribution probability closely follows the power-law behavior with the scaling exponent of 1.539 5 when the H₂S release rate is over 0.006 7 m³/s,and its tail corresponds to the probabilities of level 1 and level 2 sour gas wells with high hazard.Those sour gas wells mainly located in the northeastern and northwestern areas of Sichuan Gas Field,Chongqing Gas Field and Puguang Gas Field.This model can describe reasonably the probabilistic distribution of the H₂S release rates in the sour gas wells of the Sichuan and Chongqing areas.

Key words: Sichuan and Chongqing areas, sour gas wells, hydrogen sulfide dispersion, release rate, probabilistic distribution model

中图分类号:

TE284

陈胜, 吴庆善, 江田汉, 席学军, 郭再富, 王建光. 川渝地区含硫气井H₂S释放速率的概率分布模型[J]. 石油学报, 2009, 30(5): 774-777.

CHEN Sheng, WU Qingshan, JIANG Tianhan, XI Xuejun, GUO Zaifu, WANG Jianguang. Probabilistic distribution model for release rates of H²S in sour gas wells of Sichuan and Chongqing areas[J]. Editorial office of ACTA PETROLEI SINICA, 2009, 30(5): 774-777.

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[2]	罗音宇, 江田汉, 邓云峰, 席学军, 伍彬彬. 含硫气井硫化氢扩散危险水平分级方法[J]. 石油学报, 2008, 29(3): 447-450.

川渝地区含硫气井H₂S释放速率的概率分布模型

Probabilistic distribution model for release rates of H²S in sour gas wells of Sichuan and Chongqing areas

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