石油学报 ›› 2001, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (2): 70-78.DOI: 10.7623/syxb200102013

• 油田开发 • 上一篇    下一篇

年度措施产油量配产方法研究

李斌, 张国旗, 刘伟, 吴晨洪, 柳金旺   

  1. 中国石油冀东油田公司 河北唐山063004
  • 收稿日期:1999-09-24 修回日期:2000-04-28 出版日期:2001-03-25 发布日期:2010-05-21
  • 作者简介:李斌,男,1939年9月生.1965年毕业于北京石油学院开发系.现任中国石油冀东油田公司教授级高工.通讯处:河北省唐山市路北区.

STUDY OF THE ANNUAL MEASUREMENT FOR OIL PRODUCTION PRORATION METHOD

LI Bin   

  1. Jidong Oil Field Corp., Petro-China, Tangsan 063004, China
  • Received:1999-09-24 Revised:2000-04-28 Online:2001-03-25 Published:2010-05-21

摘要: 年度、月度措施产量是多因素影响的灰色本征系统。根据灰色理论的基本原理提出措施产量的多项式预测模型、组合预测模型与GM(1. 1)预测模型。文中对具有突变性单调或非单调的初始序列所建立的预测模型进行了多次残差修正与周期修正,使其预测误差在控制范围内。同时提出对定量预测模型进行定性调整,使之更符合实际。在实际计算中是多种预测模型的综合应用。该预测方法改变了过去仅凭经验预测措施产量的状况,具有科学性、实用性和可操作性。经实例计算证明是可行的。

关键词: 措施产量, 多项式, 模型, 残差修正, 灰色系统

Abstract: Annual and monthly measurement rate is the gray original character systems influenced by multifactor. Multinomial forecast model,assembled forecast model and GM(1. 1)forecast model of measurement rate is proposed according to the basic principle of gray theory. The established forecast model of mutation monotone or nomonotone initial sequence adjusted by residual error amendment and period amendment several times. Fewer errors are found between the forecast and true production. The quantificational forecast model is adjusted to accord with the reality of the comprehensive application of many types of models at actual computation. The situation that forecasting measurement rate only relies on experience in the past is changed. It is a kind of scientific, practical and maneuverable method and it has been proved to be feasible by actual examples.

Key words: measurement rate, multinomial, model, residual error amendment, gray system

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