关键词: 多模型自适应, 原油产量, 预测, 系统, 方法

Abstract: It is considered as a prerequisite for the optimized oil production planning to accurately predict oil production.On the basis of reviewing numerous existing methods for prediction of oil production,a multimodel adaptive prediction method is developed.This method derives from the single-model adaptive prediction technique.It can not only best match the variation regularities of the predicted object with the different trajectory equations existing at different time intervals,but also make the parameters involved in the best matching equations timevarying.Hence it represents a perfect adaptive system,and possesses features of high prediction accuracy, good adaptability,simplicity of calculation and convenience.

Key words: adaptive multi-madel, oill, production predictian system method