Abstract: The risks for development of high water-cut reservoirs in horizontal well were analyzed.The numerical simulation of watered-out mechanism in horizontal well was carried out.The basic models for describing the distribution of remaining oil in the well pattern of the injector-producer rows were established.The factors affecting the development behavior and production performance of horizontal well,such as reservoir scale,reservoir properties,fluid properties,parameters of horizontal segment,liquid rate and the distribution of interbeds were discussed.Sixty six cases and their sensitivity analysis projects were designed.The relative sensitivity of each factor to the production performance of horizontal well was investigated synthetically.

Key words: high water-cut reservoir, horizontal well, watered-out mechanism, numerical simulation, risk analysis, sensitivity analysis

摘要： 分析了水平井开发高含水油藏的风险,开展了水平井水淹机理数值模拟研究,建立了基础模型及排式注水采油剩余油分布模型.对影响水平井开发效果和生产动态的因素共设计出66个单因素模拟方案,对各个单因素进行了敏感性分析和评价,并对这些影响因素进行了综合分析,给出了各个因素对水平井开发效果和生产动态的定量敏感性结果.

关键词: 高含水油藏, 水平井, 水淹机理, 数值模拟, 风险分析, 敏感性分析