Abstract: Group method of data handling(GMDH)was proposed by A. G. Ivakhnenko,a Russian scholar,in the 1970's.It is a method of modeling by heuristic self-organization. It can solve effectively the problem of a complex non-linear system. A brief introduction of GMDH is presented in this paper. The application of GMDH to analyze reservoir performance is alsodiscussed,and a formation pressure forecast model and production forecast model are set upby using actual data from the Nanyang oilfield.With a relative error of no more than 5%,theresult is satisfactory. Finally, the prospect of application of GMDH to oilfield developmentis discussed.

Key words: data processing, formation pressure prediction, production forcast model

摘要： 数据组合处理方法（GMDH）是70年代发展起来的一种启发式自组织建模方法,由前苏联学者伊万年科（Ivakhnenko,1970）借助生物控制论中的自组织原理,用启发式的方法提出的;它能有效的解决复杂非线性系统的建模问题.简单介绍了此方法的基本原理及计算步骤,首次探讨了在分析油藏动态方面的应用,并以南阳油田的实际数据为例,建立了区块地层压力预测模型和区块产量预测模型,其预测相对误差在5%以内,表明该方法实用可行.最后还讨论了该方法在油田开发中的应用前景.

关键词: 数据处理, 地层压力预测, 产量预测, 模型