Abstract: A predictable model was set up by using Stochastic simulation method for high water-cut development stage in East China oil fields.The distribution of the parameter was predicted on the basis of sedimentology and geostatistics.A structural model and the predictable sedimentary geology model of faces were established by taking Second Section 7-8 sand groups as an example of the reservoir.The relations between these models and the remaining oil were analyzed.The study is of important significance to tap the latent power for eastern oil fields.

Key words: Stochastic Simulation, annealing simulation, sequential indicator simulation, structural model, predictable model remaining oil

摘要： 针对我国东部各油田进入特高含水期采油阶段所面临的稳产难题,提出了建立预测模型的方法,即综合各种途径取得的信息,主要依靠沉积学加上地质统计学方法,对井间参数进行一定精度的、细致的预测估值.随机建模的具体方法目前发展较快的是地质统计学方法,这种方法的思路是寻求比较符合地质规律的地质统计学模型和方法,表征各种沉积类型的储层参数的变化规律,用这种已知的规律对井间未知的地区参数的空间分布作出预测估值.以胜坨油田二区沙二段7-8砂组为例,利用模拟退火方法和顺序指示模拟方法分别建立了砂体格架和沉积微相平面展布等预测模型,并分析了模型与剩余油分布的关系,为油田的进一步挖潜作出了有意义的探讨.

关键词: 随机模拟, 模拟退火, 顺序指示, 砂体格架模型, 预测模型, 剩余油分布