Abstract:

According to the similar variation of water-cut reduction to that of oil production, the oil production prediction models were applied to predict the polymer flooding water-cut reduction. The characteristics and applicability of three typical water-flooding prediction models in polymer flooding, including Weibull Model, General Mr. Weng Model and Ruili Model, were analyzed. The influential factors for the water-cut variation in polymer flooding development were investigated. The main parameters, such as polymer concentration, pore volume of polymer injection, production time, were introduced into a new prediction model. The new prediction model was used to predict polymer flooding water-cut reduction of three blocks in Daqing Oilfield, and good result has been achieved. All the coefficients of correlation between the actual water-cut curves and the predicted curves are over 0.98. Both errors of the predicted lowest water-cut value and injection rate with the actual values are less than 4%. The new model can be used to predict the effects of polymer injection rate, polymer concentration and injection speed on polymer flooding water-cut variation. This model needs a few parameters and is easy in usage.

Key words: polymer flooding, development performance, water-cut prediction, injected volume, prediction model

摘要：

依据聚合物驱含水率降低值与产油量变化趋势相似的特点,将产量预测模型引入聚合物驱含水率预测。分析了Weibull预测模型、广义翁氏预测模型、瑞利预测模型的特点及其对聚合物驱含水率预测的适用性。同时,通过分析影响聚合物驱含水率的因素,将聚合物驱注入量、开发时间及聚合物浓度等主要参数引入预测模型,建立了聚合物驱含水率预测的新模型。应用该模型对大庆3个聚合物驱区块的含水率进行了预测。结果表明,预测曲线与实际含水率曲线的相关系数均高于0.98,预测的含水率最低值及对应的注入量误差均小于4%,预测结果可靠。该预测模型可用于分析聚合物驱注入量、聚合物浓度、注入速度等因素对聚合物驱含水率的影响,所需参数少,计算快,应用方便。

关键词: 聚合物驱, 开发动态, 含水率预测, 注入量, 预测模型