关键词: 勘探决策, 油气圈闭, 地质风险, 勘探成本, 预期储量

Abstract: When some frequently used exploration decision methods,for example the decision-tree method,are applied to exploration decision-making work,the total costs and profits of the whole exploration process aught to be considered,no matter which stage the exploration is.In that way,the exploration decision-making works are not easy to be done,and furthermore some error decision results often occur.The exploration process can be divided into several stages.Therefore some new decision-making methods should be constructed to fit in with each other.If the target of each stage can be reached completely with the lowest cost,the best result of the whole exploration process can also be reached completely with the lowest cost.In this paper,a new decision-making method is proposed.This method can be used to select some appropriate traps in order to get the largest reserves with the lowest cost.

Key words: exploration decision-making method, trap, geologic risk, exploration costs, anticipated reserves