Abstract: Prediction of fatigue crack life of sucker rod with variable amplityde loading has been studied in the lighe of stochastic fatigue principle. Based on investigations from sucker rod manufacturer and oil field operator, sucker rod signals from 19 wells with good representation were gathered and the load spectra wave established. Nominal stress method, local stress-strain method and fracture mechamics techniques are used to predict the fatigue crack life in theoretical anlysis. Simulation tests with programmed loading were performed. Statistical data, theoretical prediction simulation tests have given consistemt life prediction with 99.9% probability of survival, from which the "Mark Life" of grade C sucker rod is thus given. Propesals for further research are also made in the paper.

摘要： 本文以随机疲劳观点,对抽油杆疲劳断裂——寿命预估进行了研究。在生产厂与油田现场的调研基础上,采集了具有代表性的19口油井的抽油杆信号,并编制了载荷谱。在理论分析上用名义应力法、局部应力应变法、断裂力学方法等预估抽油杆寿命。在实验上,对抽油杆进行模拟程序加载疲劳试验。通过调查统计、理论预估和模拟试验三者的研究,得到了三者较为吻合的具有存活率99.9%的寿命值。由此提出C级抽油杆的“目标寿命”值。通过初探提出对抽油杆研究的八条建议,为下一步研究作好基础准备。