Abstract: Based on information of cumulative production which is a function of time and studywith statistical data, a new model for the prediction of the production rate, cumulative produced rate, recoverable reserves, max. production rate and the time when it occurs is established. It is demonstrated in this paper that the well known Gomperts prediction model canbe obtained by a simplification of this prediction model.

Key words: predictive production, cumulative production, recoverable reserves, model

摘要： 基于累积产量随时间增长的信息和大量统计研究的结果,推导建立了预测油气田产量的新模型。该模型可以用于预测油气田的产量、累积产量、可采储量和最高年产量及其发生的时间,并能简化为着名的Gompertz(龚帕兹)预测模型。

关键词: 预测产量, 累积产量, 可采储量, 模型