考虑随机变量相关性的腐蚀管道失效概率

doi:10.7623/syxb201610010

石油学报 ›› 2016, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (10): 1293-1301.DOI: 10.7623/syxb201610010

考虑随机变量相关性的腐蚀管道失效概率

张鹏¹, 彭杨²

1. 西南石油大学土木工程与建筑学院四川成都 610500;
2. 西南石油大学机电工程学院四川成都 610500

收稿日期:2016-01-19 修回日期:2016-07-16 出版日期:2016-10-25 发布日期:2016-11-09
通讯作者: 张鹏,男,1964年1月生,1984年获西南石油学院学士学位,1997年获哈尔滨建筑大学博士学位,现为西南石油大学土木工程与建筑学院教授、博士生导师,主要从事管道风险评价、可靠性分析、完整性管理及管道数字化建设等方面研究。Email:zp_swpi@sina.com
作者简介:张鹏,男,1964年1月生,1984年获西南石油学院学士学位,1997年获哈尔滨建筑大学博士学位,现为西南石油大学土木工程与建筑学院教授、博士生导师,主要从事管道风险评价、可靠性分析、完整性管理及管道数字化建设等方面研究。Email:zp_swpi@sina.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目（No.50974105）、中国工程院重大咨询研究项目（2011-ZD-20）和高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金项目（20105121110003）资助。

Failure probability of corroded pipeline considering random variables correlation

Zhang Peng¹, Peng Yang²

1. School of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Southwest Petroleum University, Sichuan Chengdu 610500, China;
2. School of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, Southwest Petroleum University, Sichuan Chengdu 610500, China

Received:2016-01-19 Revised:2016-07-16 Online:2016-10-25 Published:2016-11-09

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

针对腐蚀管道可靠性分析中随机变量独立性假设的缺点，提出了考虑随机变量相关性的腐蚀管道可靠性分析方法，建立了腐蚀管道腐蚀穿孔、局部爆破、整体断裂及其综合失效概率模型。基于JC法和正交变换法，运用多维正态分布函数，给出了随机变量相关下的腐蚀管道多模失效概率计算方法。对管道可靠性分析中的相关性进行了分析，结合实例研究了管径与壁厚、缺陷深度与长度、径向腐蚀速率与轴向腐蚀速率、屈服强度与拉伸强度4组随机变量相关性对腐蚀管道失效概率的影响。结果表明，随机变量相关性对管道腐蚀穿孔失效概率没有影响，管道局部爆破、整体断裂及综合失效概率随缺陷深度与长度相关系数和径向腐蚀速率与轴向腐蚀速率相关系数的增大而增大，随管径与壁厚相关系数的增大而减小。屈服强度与拉伸强度相关系数越大，局部爆破和整体断裂失效概率越大，综合失效概率不变，并且变量相关性对腐蚀管道失效概率的影响随着腐蚀增长而逐渐减弱。腐蚀管道失效概率对径向腐蚀速率与轴向腐蚀速率的相关系数最为敏感，对屈服强度与拉伸强度相关系数的敏感性最低。

关键词: 相关性, 多模失效, 腐蚀管道, 可靠性, 失效概率

Abstract:

In view of the shortcomings of independence assumption for random variables in the reliability analysis of corroded pipeline, an analytical method was put forward for the reliability of corroded pipeline considering the correlation among random variables. The models of corrosion perforation, local burst and rupture as well as their composite failure probability were also established. Based on JC method and orthogonal transformation, the multidimensional normal distribution function was used to propose a computational method for the multi-mode failure probability of corroded pipeline considering correlated random variables. This paper elaborated on the correlation of pipeline reliability analysis. Meanwhile, based on case studies, a study was conducted on how the pipeline failure probability was affected by the correlation between 4 pairs of random variables, including pipe diameter and wall thickness, the depth and length of the defect, the radial rate and axial rate of corrosion, as well as yield strength and tensile strength. The analysis results suggest that the correlation between random variables has no influence on the failure probability of pipeline corrosion perforation. The probability of local burst, rupture and composite failure increases with the increase of correlation coefficient between the defect depth and length as well as that between the radial and axial corrosion rate, and decreases with the increase of correlation coefficient between the pipe diameter and wall thickness. The larger the correlation coefficient between yield strength and tensile strength is, the greater the probability of local burst and rupture will be, while the composite failure probability remains the same. Besides, the impact of variables correlation on the failure probability of corroded pipeline decreases as the corrosion continues. The failure probability of corroded pipeline is most sensitive to the correlation coefficient of radial and axial corrosion rate, and least sensitive to the correlation coefficient between the yield strength and tensile strength.

Key words: correlation, multi-mode failure, corroded pipeline, reliability, failure probability

中图分类号:

TE988

张鹏, 彭杨. 考虑随机变量相关性的腐蚀管道失效概率[J]. 石油学报, 2016, 37(10): 1293-1301.

Zhang Peng, Peng Yang. Failure probability of corroded pipeline considering random variables correlation[J]. Acta Petrolei Sinica, 2016, 37(10): 1293-1301.

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考虑随机变量相关性的腐蚀管道失效概率

Failure probability of corroded pipeline considering random variables correlation

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