Abstract: The existing methods of resources forecast are reviewed.The laws of discovery of large oilfields and the variation of reserve-production ratio in the oil-bearing basins or areas of China are analyzed.The relations among cumulative measured recoverable reserves,cumulative production and remaining recoverable reserves are investigated. Two new methods to predict the recoverable resources by using a great deal of data are developed.One is history fitting curve,and another is reserve-production ratio descending phase fitting curve.There are 107?8×108t resources in China predicted by using above methods.The resources of some areas in China are also forecasted.The results show that compared application of two methods may present good effectiveness.

Key words: oil, reserves, production, resources, forecast

摘要： 回顾了世界上现行的可采资源量预测方法,总结分析了在我国石油勘探开发过程中大型油气田的发现规律及储采比变化规律,探讨了累积发现可采储量、累积产量与可采资源量三者之间的内在关系及储采比的变化对它们的影响.在此基础上,利用累积发现的可采储量与累积产量建立了预测可采资源量的有效方法———全程历史拟合法和储采比递减阶段曲线拟合法.利用上述两种方法预测出中国石油的经济可采资源量为107.8×10⁸t,次经济的可采储量约为(27～36)×10⁸t,还对部分油区的可采资源量进行了预测.预测结果表明,两种方法对比使用,能获得较好的预测效果.

关键词: 中国, 石油, 可采储量, 产量, 可采资源量, 预测