Abstract: When some frequently used exploration decision methods,for example the decision-tree method,are applied to exploration decision-making work,the total costs and profits of the whole exploration process aught to be considered,no matter which stage the exploration is.In that way,the exploration decision-making works are not easy to be done,and furthermore some error decision results often occur.The exploration process can be divided into several stages.Therefore some new decision-making methods should be constructed to fit in with each other.If the target of each stage can be reached completely with the lowest cost,the best result of the whole exploration process can also be reached completely with the lowest cost.In this paper,a new decision-making method is proposed.This method can be used to select some appropriate traps in order to get the largest reserves with the lowest cost.

Key words: exploration decision-making method, trap, geologic risk, exploration costs, anticipated reserves

摘要： 在运用目前流行的勘探决策方法(如决策树方法等)进行勘探决策时,无论勘探工作处于何阶段,总是要考虑勘探工作全过程的投入和产出。但油气勘探是分阶段的,若要在每个阶段的勘探决策工作中都考虑勘探开发全过程的投入和产出,一是会给勘探决策工作带来实际的操作困难,二是造成错误的勘探决策结果。若油气勘探工作在每个阶段都能以最小的成本实现每个阶段的工作目标,那么,油气勘探工作的全过程也就能以最小的成本,获得最好的结果。为此,提出了油气勘探决策工作应该分阶段进行,并提出了一种在勘探阶段以落实储量为目标而优选圈闭的勘探决策方法。

关键词: 勘探决策, 油气圈闭, 地质风险, 勘探成本, 预期储量