Abstract: Prediction for yearly production of oilfield is an important step to make yearly production plan and an important basis for scientifically managing oilfield and programming economy plan.The changing regulation of the natural oil production of old wells in some oilfields was investigated.A method for forecasting the natural oil production of old wells was established on the statistical analysis.This forecasting method can give a programming plan more scientifically than the empirical methods.The case calculation indicates that the new method has the advantages of high accuracy,practicality,convenience and availability in the yearly allocation of oilfield.

Key words: oilfield, oil production prediction, natural oil production, prediction model, case calculation

摘要： 根据油田老井自然产油量变化规律,建立了一种预测油田老井自然产油量的方法.该预测方法改变了过去仅凭经验预测老井自然产油量的状况,使油田年度配产更具有科学性、实用性和可操作性.实例计算表明,该方法具有预测精度高、简便和实用等优点,可以在油田年度工作部署中得到有效的应用.

关键词: 油田, 产量预测, 自然产油量, 预测模型, 实例计算