Reliability analysis of corroded subsea pipeline

doi:10.7623/syxb201504014

Acta Petrolei Sinica ›› 2015, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (4): 516-520.DOI: 10.7623/syxb201504014

• Petroleum Engineering • Previous Articles Next Articles

Reliability analysis of corroded subsea pipeline

Han Wenhai, Zhou Jing

Faculty of Infrastructure, Dalian University of Technology, Liaoning Dalian 116024, China

Received:2014-10-10 Revised:2015-02-07 Online:2015-04-25 Published:2015-04-04

腐蚀海底管道可靠性分析

韩文海, 周晶

大连理工大学建设工程学部辽宁大连 116024

通讯作者: 周晶,男,1949年6月生,1976年获大连工学院学士学位,1986年获大连工学院博士学位,现任大连理工大学建设工程学部教授、博士生导师,主要从事工程结构抗震分析理论、模型试验技术和工程结构风险分析与评估。Email:zhouj@dlut.edu.cn
作者简介:韩文海,男,1989年9月生,2012年获大连理工大学学士学位,现为大连理工大学建设工程学部博士研究生,主要从事海底管道可靠性和极限承载力方面研究。Email:whhan@mail.dlut.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)项目"深海柔性结构非线性流固耦合振动与破坏机理"(2011CB013702)资助。

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to calculate the reliability of corroded subsea pipeline, a corrosion model, effect of loads that count in the service period of subsea pipeline are studied, including pressure, temperature load, bending moment, overlaying soil effect, earthquake effect and residual stress effect. The reliability of corroded submarine pipe under all these effects is calculated with Monte Carlo method based on numerical example, so that the change of failure probability is obtained. Meanwhile, the effect of these loads on the failure probability of corroded subsea pipe is quantitatively analyzed. Sensitivity analysis is conducted for parameters that are usually used in design such as operational pressure, pipe radius, thickness of pipe wall and et al, in the view of failure probability. The analysis provides references for reliability calculation of corroded subsea pipeline in practice.

Key words: corroded submarine pipeline, reliability, overlaying soil effect, seismic load, residual stress effect

摘要：

为了计算海底管道在腐蚀作用下的可靠性,研究了海底管道在正常服役阶段可能受到的荷载作用,包括内压、温度、弯曲、覆土、地震作用和残余应力作用。基于Monte Carlo方法结合算例,计算了腐蚀海底管道在这些作用下的可靠性,得到了失效概率随时间的变化曲线。同时,研究了这6种作用对腐蚀海底管道的影响,描述了各种作用对腐蚀海底管道的影响程度。从影响腐蚀海底管道失效概率的角度,定义了参数灵敏性指标,对海底管道设计中经常涉及的参数如操作压力、管道半径、管壁厚度和管线埋设深度等进行了灵敏性分析,讨论了其变化对管线失效概率的影响,为实际工程中对腐蚀海底管道进行可靠性分析提供了参考。

关键词: 腐蚀海底管道, 可靠性, 覆土作用, 地震作用, 残余应力

CLC Number:

TE832

Han Wenhai, Zhou Jing. Reliability analysis of corroded subsea pipeline[J]. Acta Petrolei Sinica, 2015, 36(4): 516-520.

韩文海, 周晶. 腐蚀海底管道可靠性分析[J]. 石油学报, 2015, 36(4): 516-520.

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Reliability analysis of corroded subsea pipeline

腐蚀海底管道可靠性分析

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