Maintenance strategy of corroded oil-gas pipeline based on inverse Gaussian process

doi:10.7623/syxb201703013

Acta Petrolei Sinica ›› 2017, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (3): 356-362.DOI: 10.7623/syxb201703013

• Petroleum Engineering • Previous Articles Next Articles

Maintenance strategy of corroded oil-gas pipeline based on inverse Gaussian process

Zhang Xinsheng, Li Yayun, Wang Xiaowan

School of Management, Xi'an University of Architecture and Technology, Shaanxi Xi'an 710055, China

Received:2016-06-28 Revised:2016-12-30 Online:2017-03-25 Published:2017-04-07

基于逆高斯过程的腐蚀油气管道维修策略

张新生, 李亚云, 王小完

西安建筑科技大学管理学院陕西西安 710055

通讯作者: 张新生,男,1978年8月生,2004年获西安建筑科技大学学士学位,2009年获西安电子科技大学博士学位,现为西安建筑科技大学管理学院教授,主要从事管道风险评估理论、建模与方法、智能信息处理等方面的教学和科研工作。Email:xinsheng.zh@outlook.com
作者简介:张新生,男,1978年8月生,2004年获西安建筑科技大学学士学位,2009年获西安电子科技大学博士学位,现为西安建筑科技大学管理学院教授,主要从事管道风险评估理论、建模与方法、智能信息处理等方面的教学和科研工作。Email:xinsheng.zh@outlook.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目（No.61271278）、陕西省社会科学基金项目（2015R13）、陕西省自然科学基金项目（2016JM6023）和陕西省教育厅自然专项基金项目（16JK1465）资助。

Abstract

Abstract:

The remaining life of corroded oil and gas pipeline system was predicted to provide a basis for optimizing maintenance decision scheme. Taking the corrosion of corroded pipeline under different states into consideration, the inverse Gaussian random process theory was introduced to the oil-gas pipeline corrosion assessment field, so as to propose the inverse Gaussian-state space oil-gas pipeline corrosion degradation process model and maintenance decision optimization model. Firstly, according to corrosion mechanism, the inverse Gaussian-state space degradation process model was established, of which the model parameters were solved using the parameter estimation method in combination with empirical maximum algorithm and particle filtering algorithm, so as to obtain the remaining life distribution function and probability density function of corroded oil-gas pipelines. Then a maintenance decision optimization model of corroded oil and gas pipelines was created to calculate the optimal maintenance and replacement time and minimum costs as well as develop a more reasonable maintenance scheme. Finally, the model was validated by the experimental data of corroded oil-gas pipeline. The case results showed that the model was applicable for oil and gas pipeline corrosion assessment and maintenance optimization.

Key words: oil and gas pipeline, inverse Gaussian process, state space model, remaining life, maintenance decision

摘要：

对腐蚀油气管道系统的剩余寿命进行预测可以为优化维修决策方案提供依据。考虑到油气管道不同状态下的腐蚀，将逆高斯随机过程理论引入油气管道腐蚀评估领域，提出逆高斯-状态空间油气管道腐蚀退化过程模型和维修决策优化模型。首先根据其腐蚀机理建立逆高斯-状态空间退化过程模型，运用经验最大化算法与粒子滤波算法相结合的参数估计方法对模型中的参数进行求解，得出腐蚀油气管道的剩余寿命分布函数和概率密度函数；进而建立腐蚀油气管道的维修决策优化模型，计算出模型最优的维修更换时间和最小费用，制定出较合理的维修方案；最后用腐蚀油气管道的实验数据对模型进行验证。应用实例表明，优化模型用于油气管道腐蚀评估和维修优化是可行的。

关键词: 油气管道, 逆高斯过程, 状态空间模型, 剩余寿命, 维修决策

CLC Number:

TE988

Zhang Xinsheng, Li Yayun, Wang Xiaowan. Maintenance strategy of corroded oil-gas pipeline based on inverse Gaussian process[J]. Acta Petrolei Sinica, 2017, 38(3): 356-362.

张新生, 李亚云, 王小完. 基于逆高斯过程的腐蚀油气管道维修策略[J]. 石油学报, 2017, 38(3): 356-362.

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Maintenance strategy of corroded oil-gas pipeline based on inverse Gaussian process

基于逆高斯过程的腐蚀油气管道维修策略

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