Time-dependent failure probability of corroded pipelines based on different stochastic degradation processes

doi:10.7623/syxb201912013

Acta Petrolei Sinica ›› 2019, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (12): 1542-1552.DOI: 10.7623/syxb201912013

• Petroleum Engineering • Previous Articles Next Articles

Time-dependent failure probability of corroded pipelines based on different stochastic degradation processes

Guo Lingyun^1,2, Zhou Jing^1,2, Dai Yunyun³

1. State Key Laboratory of Coast and Offshore Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Liaoning Dalian 116024, China;
2. Institute of Earthquake Engineering, Faculty of Infrastructure Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Liaoning Dalian 116024, China;
3. College of Civil Science and Engineering, Yangzhou University, Jiangsu Yangzhou 225127, China

Received:2019-01-23 Revised:2019-08-16 Online:2019-12-25 Published:2020-01-04

基于不同随机退化过程的腐蚀管道时变失效概率

郭凌云^1,2, 周晶^1,2, 代云云³

1. 大连理工大学海岸与近海工程国家重点实验室辽宁大连 116024;
2. 大连理工大学建设工程学部土木工程学院工程抗震研究所辽宁大连 116024;
3. 扬州大学建筑科学与工程学院江苏扬州 225127

通讯作者: 周晶,男,1949年7月生,1976年获大连工学院学士学位,1986年获大连工学院博士学位,现为大连理工大学建设工程学部教授、博士生导师,主要从事工程结构抗震分析理论、模型试验技术和工程结构风险分析与评估。Email:zhouj@dlut.edu.cn
作者简介:郭凌云,女,1994年5月生,2016年获华北水利水电大学学士学位,现为大连理工大学建设工程学部博士研究生,主要从事地下损伤管道风险分析和极限承载力研究。Email:andyguo@mail.dlut.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划项目"既有供水管网与排水管网系统健康诊断和管道修复技术与设备"（2016YFC0802402）资助。

Abstract

Abstract:

There are two main problems in analyzing the time-dependent failure probability of corroded pipelines:determination of the failure state of corroded pipelines and accurate simulation of the pipeline corrosion degradation process. Firstly, based on the pipeline test blasting data, the residual internal pressure bearing capacity of pipeline is selected according to the minimum function value. Secondly, the stochastic processes including Gamma process, inverse Gaussian process and Wiener process are introduced into the calculation of failure probability for corroded pipelines. Then the Monte Carlo method is used to calculate the time-dependent failure probability of pipelines. Finally, taking a set of working conditions as an example, this paper analyzes the influences of the type and parameters of degradation process on the time-dependent failure probability of pipelines, and evaluates different methods for determining the residual life of pipeline. The results show that the DNV-RP-F101 normal formula is the most suitable expression of the residual internal pressure bearing capacity of pipeline consistent with the actual situation. Using the stochastic degradation process to simulate the time-dependent failure probability of pipelines can well describe the randomness of corrosion growth and provide accurate and reliable results for predicting the time-dependent failure probability of pipelines.

Key words: corroded pipeline, residual internal pressure bearing capacity, loss function, Monte Carlo model, stochastic degradation process, failure probability

摘要：

在进行腐蚀管道的时变失效概率分析时主要存在腐蚀管道失效状态的判定以及管道腐蚀退化过程的准确模拟两个问题。基于管道试验爆破数据，依据损失函数值最小选择了管道剩余内压承载力；将随机过程——伽马过程、逆高斯过程和维纳过程引入到计算腐蚀管道的失效概率中；结合蒙特卡洛法计算了管道的时变失效概率。以一组工况为例，分析了退化过程的类型和参数对管道时变失效概率的影响，并评价了确定管道剩余寿命的不同方法。结果表明，DNV-RP-F101规范公式相对更符合实际情况的管道剩余内压承载力表达式；使用随机退化过程模拟管道的时变失效概率可以很好地描述腐蚀增长的随机性，为预测管道时变失效概率提供准确可靠的结果。

关键词: 腐蚀管道, 剩余内压承载力, 损失函数, 蒙特卡洛模型, 随机退化过程, 失效概率

CLC Number:

TE973

Guo Lingyun, Zhou Jing, Dai Yunyun. Time-dependent failure probability of corroded pipelines based on different stochastic degradation processes[J]. Acta Petrolei Sinica, 2019, 40(12): 1542-1552.

郭凌云, 周晶, 代云云. 基于不同随机退化过程的腐蚀管道时变失效概率[J]. 石油学报, 2019, 40(12): 1542-1552.

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Time-dependent failure probability of corroded pipelines based on different stochastic degradation processes

基于不同随机退化过程的腐蚀管道时变失效概率

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