Abstract: During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period (2021-2025), global upstream oil and gas operations have progressed within the complex interplay between energy security and energy transition. Leveraging commercial databases including S&P Global, Wood Mackenzie, and Rystad Energy, alongside public disclosures from petroleum companies, this study provides a systematic analysis of global oil and gas exploration and development investment, exploration discoveries, production output, and prospective exploration frontiers during this period. The results show that global investments in oil and gas exploration and development decreased by 10.5 % and 8.2 %, respectively, compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" period (2016-2020). Newly added conventional technically recoverable reserves reached 11.48 billion tons of oil equivalent, demonstrating a 24.6 % decline from the preceding period. Conversely, unconventional technically recoverable reserves reached 14.27 billion tons of oil equivalent, with a 35.9 % increase primarily driven by tight oil and shale gas in the United States. In stark contrast, guided by the "Seven-Year Action Plan" (2019-2025), China’s upstream investment surged by 38 %, leading to significant breakthroughs in ultra-deep reservoirs, deep-water frontiers (1 000-meter depth), shale oil and gas, coalbed methane, coal-rock gas, and overseas ventures. Domestically, newly proven geological reserves of oil and natural gas increased by 51.7 % and 44.2 %, respectively, as compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" levels. By 2025, China’s domestic oil and gas production equivalent reached a historic high of 425 million tons of oil equivalent, while overseas equity production reached 200 million tons. Over the next decade, domestic efforts should remain anchored in the six primary oil and gas producing areas (Ordos Basin, Sichuan Basin, Bohai Bay Basin, Xinjiang area, Songliao Basin, and the offshore). It is imperative to intensify oil and gas exploration in deep-water and unconventional frontiers, accelerate breakthroughs in core technologies, and expand into strategic succession domains and overseas resource acquisitions, thereby continuously fortifying the national oil and gas security framework.

Key words: oil and gas exploration, oil and gas field development, conventional oil and gas, unconventional oil and gas, resource potential, development prospect

摘要： “十四五”(2021—2025年)规划期间,全球油气上游业务在能源安全与转型交织中推进。基于S & P Global、Wood Mackenzie和Rystad Energy等商业数据库及油公司的公开信息,系统分析了全球“十四五”期间的油气勘探开发投资、勘探发现、油气产量及未来有利勘探领域。结果表明:全球油气勘探和开发投资较“十三五”(2016—2020年)规划期间分别下降10.5 % 和8.2 %;新增常规油气技术可采储量为114.8×10⁸t油当量,较“十三五”期间下降24.6 %;非常规油气技术可采储量为142.7×10⁸t油当量,增长35.9 %,增量主要来自美国致密油和页岩气。与之不同,中国在“七年行动计划”(2019—2025年)引领下上游投资增长38 %,在超深层、千米深水、页岩油气、煤层气、煤岩气和海外等领域取得重大突破,国内新增探明石油和天然气地质储量较“十三五”期间分别增长51.7 % 和44.2 % 。2025年中国的油气产量当量达4.25×10⁸t,创历史新高,海外权益油气产量达2×10⁸t。未来10年,中国应立足6大油气主产区(鄂尔多斯盆地、四川盆地、渤海湾盆地、新疆地区、松辽盆地和海域),加大深水与非常规油气勘探力度,强化科技攻关,拓展接替领域和海外资源获取,不断筑牢油气安全保障体系。

关键词: 油气勘探, 油气田开发, 常规油气, 非常规油气, 资源潜力, 发展前景