Abstract: Gulong shale oil, a major shale oil discovery in the Songliao Basin of China, is characterized by abundant resources but faces significant challenges in achieving economically viable development. This study focuses on the light oil belt of Gulong shale oil, where 48 representative horizontal wells that have been put into production were selected, covering both the core and slope areas laterally and the Q₁-Q₉ sub-intervals vertically. From the perspective of development technical policies, the study evaluates the development performance of horizontal wells, analyzes reasonable well spacing, and predicts the single-well estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) for various resource types. Within the framework of fiscal and tax policies, a single-well economic evaluation model was established based on the cash flow method, which is further applied to evaluate the development benefits of Gulong shale oil at the aggregate level and by resource type, determine the economic thresholds for single-well investment, operating costs, and single-well production, and conduct an economic sensitivity analysis. Based on a review of domestic and international fiscal and tax policies for unconventional oil and gas, this study proposes fiscal and tax policy support for Gulong shale oil, including resource tax, income tax and subsidies. Seventeen policy packages are designed, and their impacts on improving the economic benefits of horizontal well development are quantitatively analyzed. The results indicate that the economically viable development of Gulong shale oil can be promoted by optimizing development policies to boost single-well production, securing fiscal and tax policy support to leverage policy incentives, and strengthening technological and management innovation to reduce development costs.

Key words: Gulong shale oil, horizontal well, well spacing, economic evaluation, fiscal and tax policies

摘要： 古龙页岩油是中国在松辽盆地页岩油勘探的重大发现，其资源量丰富，但面临效益开发的巨大挑战。以古龙页岩油轻质油带为研究对象，选取已实施开发的48口典型水平井，平面涉及核心区与斜坡区，纵向涉及Q₁—Q₉油层。从开发技术政策角度，评价了水平井的开发效果，分析了水平井的合理井距，并预测了不同类型资源的水平井单井估算的最终可采储量。从财税政策角度，基于现金流量法构建了单井经济评价模型，评价了古龙页岩油整体与分类资源的开发效益，提出了单井投资、操作成本与单井产量指标的经济界限，并开展了经济敏感性分析。在调研国内外非常规油气财税政策的基础上提出了古龙页岩油在资源税、所得税、补贴收入三大类财税政策的扶持方向，设计了17套政策组合方案，并量化分析了各套方案对水平井开发效益提升的影响。研究认为，通过采取加强开发政策优化以提高单井产量，争取财税政策支持以发挥政策激励作用，以及加大技术与管理创新以降低开发成本等方式，可以有助于推动古龙页岩油效益开发。

关键词: 古龙页岩油, 水平井, 井距, 经济评价, 财税政策