Abstract: The success of "shale revolution" in North American has profoundly reshaped the global energy structure. A systematic analysis of the efficient development patterns of the Permian super unconventional hydrocarbon basin is of substantial strategic significance for promoting the large-scale, economically efficient development of China’s shale oil and gas resources and safeguarding national energy security. Drawing on full-chain big data from 100 000 wells in the Permian Basin, encompassing drilling, fracturing, production and cost, this study adopts a hybrid methodology integrating mathematical statistics, random forest machine learning, and NSGA-II multi-objective Pareto optimization algorithm to generate analytical visualizations through heat maps of development indicator influencing factors, lateral-to-vertical depth ratio charts, variations in EUR per kilometer of lateral length, and co-optimization plots of lateral length and proppant intensity. The results quantitatively reveal the intrinsic correlations and synergistic optimization pathways among the multi-dimensional parameters of "geology-engineering-economy" in shale oil and gas development. The results indicate that:the Permian Basin has undergone five developmental stages of conventional foundation, shale breakthrough, scale expansion, intelligent transformation, and mature optimization, forming an efficient development paradigm characterized by "extended lateral length, high-intensity fracturing, and data-driven decision-making", and achieving a fundamental shift from "production maximization" to "economic benefit maximization". The lateral length P50 increased from 1 451 m to 3 152 m, while the proppant intensity P50 rose from 1.6 t/m to 3.3 t/m. The development benefits of shale oil and gas is jointly controlled by resource endowment and engineering technology, exhibiting a pattern of diminishing marginal returns. The single-well EUR peaked at 12.83×10⁴t in 2020 and declined to 8.56×10⁴t in 2024, while the EUR per kilometer of lateral length decreased from 4.60×10⁴t/km to 2.71×10⁴t/km, indicating that shale gas exploitation enters the economic-returns-driven phase. The optimal proppant intensity increases monotonically with burial depth and lateral length. For deep reservoirs (3 500-4 000 m) with long horizontal intervals (4 500-5 000 m), the proppant intensity should be increased to 3.5 t/m to achieve optimal economic performance targets, with EUR≥11.4×10⁴t and oil-equivalent production per unit drilling and completion cost≥100 t/10 000 USD. Considering the geological characteristics of China’s shale oil and gas reservoirs, such as large vertical span and complex resource endowments, four core development insights are derived:promoting geology-engineering integration to achieve precise matching between reservoir properties and engineering parameters; strengthening the dynamic optimization of fracturing parameters for moderately high proppant intensity and implementing differentiated design; establishing a data-driven decision-making system and developing localized optimization charts; formulating classified and graded development strategies with forward-looking deployment of replacement resource areas. The findings provide a replicable quantitative paradigm and practical pathway for the economically efficient development of China’s shale oil and gas resources.

Key words: super unconventional basin, shale oil and gas, big data, development mode, EUR, cost efficiency

摘要： 北美"页岩革命"的成功深刻重塑全球能源格局,系统解析Permian"超级非常规油气盆地"的高效开发规律,对中国页岩油气的规模化效益开发、保障国家能源安全具有重要战略意义。依托Permian盆地十万口井的"钻井—压裂—生产—成本"全链条大数据,综合运用数理统计、随机森林机器学习及NSGA-II多目标Pareto优化算法,构建了开发指标影响因素热力图、水垂比图版、千米水平段长估算最终可采储量(EUR)变化趋势和加砂强度协同优化图版,定量揭示了页岩油气"地质—工程—经济"多维参数的内在关联与协同优化路径。研究结果表明:Permian盆地历经"常规奠基—页岩突破—规模扩张—数智转型—成熟优化"5个阶段发展,形成"长水平段+高强度压裂+大数据决策"的高效开发范式,实现从"产量最大化"向"效益最大化"的根本转变,其水平段长P50值从1 451 m增至3 152 m,加砂强度P50值从1.6 t/m提升至3.3 t/m;页岩油气开发效益受资源禀赋与工程技术双因素制约,呈现边际递减规律,单井EUR于2020年达到峰值12.83×10⁴t,2024年回落至8.56×10⁴t,千米水平 段长EUR从4.60×10⁴t/km降至2.71×10⁴t/km,标志着开发进入"经济效益主导"阶段;最优加砂强度随 埋深与水平段长单调递增,深层(3 500~4 000 m) 长水平段(4 500~5 000 m)储层需将加砂强度提升至3.5 t/m,可实现EUR≥11.4×10⁴t、每万美元单位钻压成本产油当量≥100 t的效益最优目标。结合中国页岩油气藏垂深跨度大、资源禀赋复杂的 地质特征,凝练出四大核心开发启示:推行地质—工程一体化,实现储层与工程参数精准匹配;强化"适度高砂"压裂参数动态优化,实施差异化设计;构建大数据驱动的决策体系,绘制本土化开发优化图版;建立分类分级开发策略,前瞻布局资源接替领域。研究成果以期为中国页岩油气效益开发提供可复制的量化范式与实践路径。

关键词: 超级非常规油气盆地, 页岩油气, 大数据, 开发模式, 估算最终可采储量, 成本效益