Abstract: The grey topology method is developed on the basis of GM (1,1)model. This method can be used to get a precise prediction result in any time according to former data, even if the data are very irregular. It is difficult to predict the oil production of a well with the conventional method because of its inordinate change in most cases. A group of GM(1,1)models were established by means of above mentioned grey method based on the data of oil production of a well before fracturing. These models can be used to predict the oil production of a well within its effective fracturing period when it has not been hydraulically fractured, and the fracturing effect of the well can be evaluated scientifically. These models are applicable especially for the case of great fluctuation in oil production of a well before fracturing. Some field cases verified the reliability of this method.

Key words: grey topology method, prediction model, oil production prediction, hydraulic fractured well, evaluation

摘要： 灰色拓扑预测方法是在灰色预测模型GMI(1,1)的基础上发展起来的一种新的预测方法。它的优点是:可以实现由任何杂乱无章的数据预测以后某段时间内的动态数据,而且精度不受影响。鉴于矿场上大多数油井产量变化的无规律性,应用常规方法难以有效地预测其动态。因此,根据压裂前的油井日产油量,应用上述的灰色拓扑预测方法,建立了GM(1,1)模型群,并由此预测了油井压裂有效期内(如该井不压裂时)的产量动态,从而真实地评价了压裂的增产效果。该方法实用性强,适用于压裂前产量波动比较大的油井。矿场资料证明,其可信度较高,可作为科学评价油井压裂效果的重要依据。

关键词: 灰色拓扑法, 预测模型, 产量预测, 压裂井, 评价