关键词: 套管头, 有限元法, 可靠性分析

Abstract: To solve the problem in reliability of any complicated engineering structures by the use of general reliability technique a great deal of limitations are subjected due to realistic difficulties. The Monte Carlo finite element method of structure reliability analysis developed by the authors synthesizes the advantages of the finite element method and the Monte carlo method. It is not only suitable for solving a structural reliability problem when the random variable has any distribution, but also for solving the reliability problem of aiay complicated structures. In the paper the statistical analysis of the pressure on the well head when a well is closed is given. in a sichuan oil field. The reliability analysis of the casing head with complicated structure is made by using the Monte Carlo finite element method. Improvement of reliability design of casing head is proposed.