关键词: 油气管道, 油气泄漏, 事故概率, 事故后果, 风险等级评价, 计算模型

Abstract: The basic principles and general process of quantitative risk analysis(QRA) for oil and gas pipeline failure were introduced.The probability of failure and consequence of failure were determined by the essential parameters for describing failures of pipeline.According to the probability and consequence of pipeline failures,the criticality matrix was simply used to evaluate risk levels and provide the recommended suggestion for failure mitigation.In addition,as for consequence of failure,the event tree analysis was introduced in detail.Three consequences of oil and gas leakage were simply regarded as tree branches,namely,nonignitable,ignitable and explosive events.The probabilities of the events could be estimated with the tree branches.The consequences of oil and gas leakages were assessed,as for three fields of safety,economy and environment.The influence factors on these indexes for describing the consequences of failure were discussed.The recommended classification principles for failure probability were introduced.Three common degradation models including rate model,susceptibility model and insignificant model were also described.

Key words: oil and gas pipeline, oil and gas leakage, failure probability, failure consequence, risk level assessment, calculation model