Application of the grey topology method to oil production prediction of fractured well
YANG Zhen-zhou1,2, DING Yun-hong1,2, JIANG Ting-xue2, ZENG Bin2
1. China University of Geoxiences, Beijing 100083, China; 2. Langfang Branch Institute of the Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration and Development, Langfang 065007, China
Abstract：The grey topology method is developed on the basis of GM (1,1)model. This method can be used to get a precise prediction result in any time according to former data, even if the data are very irregular. It is difficult to predict the oil production of a well with the conventional method because of its inordinate change in most cases. A group of GM(1,1)models were established by means of above mentioned grey method based on the data of oil production of a well before fracturing. These models can be used to predict the oil production of a well within its effective fracturing period when it has not been hydraulically fractured, and the fracturing effect of the well can be evaluated scientifically. These models are applicable especially for the case of great fluctuation in oil production of a well before fracturing. Some field cases verified the reliability of this method.
2003, Vol. 24 
