Abstract: The first general investigation of the status and requirement forecast of professional personnel in China's petroleum industry was made in the latter half of 1983.The problem was approached in two different ways,typical sampling and systematic forecasting of professions.Besides applying the empirical method and supplemented by mathematical model study and trend exprapolation,comprehensive forecasting was adopted to improve its precision and reliability.The results have been used in the revision of our Education Program for 1983-1990.The method of forecasting in this way,the evaluation of its results and steps envisaged in the furtherance of the work are discussed at some length.

摘要： 1983年进行了一次石油系统专门人才现状普查及需求预测。通过典型抽样及业务系统预测两个不同途径,以经验法一工作研究法为主,数学模型及趋势外推计算为辅,采取综合预测以提高预测的精度及可靠性。预测结果已用于修订1983～1990年石油教育规划。本文就此次石油专门人才近、中期需求预测方法、成果的评价及继续做好人才预测等方面进行了初步的探讨。