关键词: 世界石油, 石油峰值, 预测模型, 峰值预测, 生命周期

Abstract: Peak oil theory is an influential theory concerning the long-term oil reserve and rate of oil production.The origin of the peak oil theory was discussed,and a comprehensive comparison of the different quantitative models used in predicting peak value was made.The forecast models can be categorized into three types of life models based on the limited life system,random models based on the theories of probability and statistics,generalized mathematical models based on actual production and logical reasoning.The development of the forecast models shows that the foreign forecast models evolved from monocyclic ones to multi-cyclic ones emphasized the models' vertical development,whereas Chinese models such as the Weng's model and many others emphasized their horizontal development.Future researches should combine the two fields,especially to push forward the vertical development of the models.The world oil peak value was calculated on the basis of the generalized Weng's model.The estimated peak of world oil production is about 4.03 billion tons,and the oil peak will arrive around by the year 2020.

Key words: world oil, peak oil, forecast model, peak oil forecasting, life cycle