关键词: 油气资源评价, 储量, 产量, 控制, 预测

Abstract: The concept of the effective economical recoverable resource is not yet considered in application of petroleum resource assessment,and the equilibrium among resource,reserve andproduction is not considered either in the decision of the long-term pian of production development and,sometimes,the production changes of developed oil provinces were extended topredict the future production changes of oil areas including new provinces.As a result,mis-leading may often occur in practice.An assessment method for effective economical recoverable resource and a;controlledprediction of "resource-reserve-production" and the feedback assessment system are proposedin this paper. They have resulted in some satisfactory results in compiling the long-termpetroleum development plan of our country and making history matching between productionand reserve of the major petroleum countries in the world.This system can be used to compile middle and long-term plans of oil and gas exploration and development.

Key words: evaluation of oil-gas resources, reserves, production, control prediction