Abstract: Because of oil and gas field numbers and accumulations having fractal relations,the paper introduced fractal method to predict undiscovered gas field numbers and accumulations in the north of Songliao Basin by dividing the sizes of the discovered gas fields into 9 categories.The truncate shifted pareto distribution method is also used to predict total undiscovered gas reserve.The caculated result shows that the reserve predicted by truncate shifted pareto distribution method comforms with the reserve predicted by fractal method very well,which proves the reliability of the fractal method.The following conclusions have been made:there are fractal relationship between the number of oil and gas fields and their sizes,and the fractal method has the good application result in the highly explored basins and zones,but there are some difficulties in newly exploring areas.

Key words: fractal method, gas field, number, accumulation, prediction

摘要： 由于油气田数量与储量规模之间具有分形关系,本文在对松辽盆地北部已发现气田储量规模(储量级别)进行划分的基础上,应用分形方法对该区未发现气田的数量和储量进行了预测,同时应用截断帕雷托分布模型预测了未发现气田总储量.结果表明,分形方法与截断帕雷托分布模型预测的未发现气田储量大小相吻合,验证了分形方法是一种预测油气田储量的可靠方法.最后得出以下主要结论:油气田数量与储量规模之间具有分形关系;分形方法在勘探程度较高的盆地或区带应用效果好,而在勘探新区有些难度.

关键词: 分形方法, 气田, 数量, 储量, 预测