Abstract: The productivity prediction of hydrocarbon reservoirs is very important but also unresolved in petroleum industry.A new method for productivity prediction of oil and gas formation is proposed in this paper based on the hydrodynamics of rock formations by using well-log information before well testing.The mathematical models for predicting the productivity of both oil and gas formations are established based upon the abundant core data and petrophysical measurements on rock samples from various oil or condensate reservoirs in Tarim Basin. It is the first time in Tarim Basin that the successful prediction of productivity for hydrocarbon reservoir comes true and the prediction has been well proved by the test results.From very high production to low production or even dry zone,the good agreement between the predicted productivity with the DST data demonstrated the availability and the application prospects of the technique.

Key words: productivity, prediction, method, models, hydrocarbon formation

摘要： 应用渗流力学基本理论,提出了以油气层有效渗透率为突破口,确立了利用常规测井资料在油气层测试之前对其产能进行预测的方法.根据塔里木盆地多个油气田大量试油和岩心分析资料,分别建立了油层和气层产能预测评价的实用数学模型,从而把渗流力学理论模型变成了易于应用的实用技术.应用所建立的产能预测方法及数学模型,在塔里木盆地第一次成功地对一口油气井的产能进行了定量预测计算.从日产天然气几十万方的特高产层到低产层和干层,塔里木盆地库车地区A井天然气层产能预测结果得到了完井测试结果的证实,表明了产能预测方法和模型的有效性,同时也说明利用测井资料预测评价油气层产能技术的良好应用前景.

关键词: 产能, 预测, 方法, 模型, 油气层