Abstract: Although the recoverable reserves of oil remaining and production in the mature oil provinces of East China started decreasing in 1985 and 1988 respectively,the rising of oil production in the north-west part of China in recent twenty years has made up for reduction of output in the east part of China.Since 1997,the oil production in Zhujiangkou Basin in sea area has been reduced,and the ratio of reserves to production has dropped to very low point.The oil production in Bohai Basin will rise rapidly,which will not only make up for decreasing of oil production in South Sea,but also make contributions to the oil production boosting in China.The production change in more than twenty years indicated that the north-west and sea areas have become the preliminary strategic replacing areas.The oil production can keep relative stable and slight increasing at least in 15 years.

Key words: East China, North-west China, sea area China, oil production, oil-remaining recoverable reserves, strategic replacement

摘要： 中国东部老油区石油剩余可采储量和产量分别在1985年和1988年由上升转变为下降,而近20年来的西北区石油产量上升弥补了东部的减产.海域珠江口盆地的产量在1997年后下降,其储产比已降到很低;但渤海的产量将迅速上升,这不仅可弥补南海产量的下降,而且能为全国产量的增加作出贡献.20余年的产量变化表明,西北和海域已初步形成了对东部老油区的战略接替,全国石油产量至少还能保持15年左右相对稳产并略有上升的局面.

关键词: 中国东部, 中国西北部, 中国海域, 石油产量, 石油剩余可采储量, 战略接替