Abstract: The performance prediction of flowing gel for profile control is based on the result of reservoir numerical simulation at present.A new model for predicting performance of flowing gel was proposed.The viscosity of oil displacement agent was adjusted with the volume weighting method.The heterogeneity of formation was correlated by the residual resistance factor of flowing gel.This model can be used to predict many production indexes such as water cut,oil production rate and water production rate.It can also be used to predict the parameters of enhanced oil recovery,increment of oil volume and reduction of water volume in profile control of flowing gel.The new method can provide the bases for pilot project design and prediction of application.The sensitivity of parameters in the model was analyzed.This model was applied to predict the result of a group of oil wells.

Key words: flowing gel, water drive performance, prediction model, production index, oil recovery, sensitivity analysis

摘要： 针对目前只能借助于数值模拟才能进行可动凝胶深部调驱动态预测的问题,依据水驱动态预测方法,结合可动凝胶深部调驱的作用机理,采用体积加权法校正驱替体系地下的等效粘度,并根据残余阻力系数校正地层的非均质性,建立了可动凝胶深部调驱的动态预测模型.该模型可用于预测可动凝胶深部调驱的含水率、产油量、产水量等指标的变化规律,还可预测其提高采收率幅度和增油降水等指标,为可动凝胶深部调驱方案设计和效果预测提供了依据.另外,对模型的参数进行了敏感性分析,对一个实际井组的调驱效果进行了测试.

关键词: 可动凝胶, 水驱动态, 预测模型, 开发指标, 原油采收率, 敏感性分析