Abstract: The prediction research of petroleum reservoir development targets are closely related with the economical effect of future petroleum research reservoir operation and the fuse of technology application.In order to make the long-term production schedule and annual plan reasonably,on the basis of science to develop the field to full potential extent,it is crucial to study the production prediction method for field blocks,and this could result in optimization production scheme.This paper takes of the advantage of current achievements in establishing of differential equation time continuous model of dynamic system,in system engineering field,and presents a new method of target prediction in petroleum reservoir development.This model is named CDM (n,h) model,and CDM (n,h) model cad be used not only for prediction,but also for dynamic system analysis and control.Applying this model to predict practical production showed satisfied precision.Compared with GM(n,h) model of Grey System Theory through many practical data from production process,CDM,(n,h) model has obvious advantages.

Key words: model, prediction, difference equation, oil field development

摘要： 在进行差分方程理论和现代控制理论研究基础上,提出了“中心差分建模理论和方法”.该方法具有模型级自适应与参数时变性的特点,可适用于油区中,长期规划时开发指标的预测.与灰色预报模型进行对比研究,由于灰色预报模型只考虑了因变量与自变量的关系,仅仅建立了一个时间序列的函数,它要求原始时序规律性较强,这就对信息量有所限制,经矿场实际数据验证,其预报精度较中心差分预测模型要差,预报的时间要短.中心差分建模的模型即考虑了因变量与自变量的关系,又考虑了自变量与其本身过去的关系,是用原始数据直接建模,它既可进行时间序列的预报,又可进行动态系统的分析和控制.

关键词: 模型, 预测, 差分方程, 油田开发, 动态分析