Abstract: Based on analyzing the history of shale revolution in the United States and the differences in geological and engineering characteristics of shale oil between continental basins in China and marine basins in the United States, the paper proposes ten noteworthy issues on continental shale oil revolution in China, including the application and evolution of the nomenclatures of shale oil and tight oil in U.S., the development process of shale oil/tight oil in U.S., the proposal and connotation of shale revolution, and the experience in system and mechanism that can be learned from successful shale revolution in U.S., the work pattern of shale oil in U.S., the relationship between the profit model of shale oil and investment channels, the relationship between production declines of shale oil, the concrete time when a breakthrough is made in shale oil exploration in China, the principles and standards for classification of shale oil, and the continental shale oil revolution in China. Research suggests that the concepts of shale oil and tight oil in North America are identical to some extent. The core of "shale revolution" in U.S. is to improve drilling and completion efficiency, reduce well construction costs, and increase single well production; the development stages of its work pattern is divided according to the changes in both well type and horizontal section length of horizontal well, as well as the development of hydraulic fracturing. The number of drilled and completed wells is an important indicator reflecting shale oil exploration and development. The profit models and investment channels of shale oil extraction are closely related. American companies’ pursuit of recovering investment as soon as possible to obtain profits leads to the general adoption of a production model based on pressure release, with a rapid decline in yield and an L-shaped production curve. In terms of system and mechanism, we should draw on the experience from the application of market mechanisms, the project operation model of "oil companies+lean management", as well as the establishment of shared and open databases. From the perspective of resource base, engineering and technological capabilities, and production expectations, China has the basic conditions for the success in the continental shale oil revolution. All efforts should be made to promote the marketization, technological and management transformation of shale oil exploration and development, highlight the "qualitative development and quantitative breakthrough" of shale oil, and effectively transform resources into reserves and then into beneficial production, which can ensure the victory of shale oil revolution.

Key words: shale revolution, shale oil, decline curve, standard of classification, system and mechanism

摘要： 基于对美国页岩革命的历程及中国陆相盆地与美国海相盆地页岩油地质、工程特征差异性的分析,提出了中国陆相页岩油革命值得关注的10个问题,包括美国页岩油与致密油术语的使用及演化、美国页岩油/致密油的发展历程、页岩革命的提出与内涵、美国页岩革命成功可借鉴的体制机制经验、美国页岩油工作模式、页岩油盈利模式与投资渠道的关系、页岩油产量递减关系、中国页岩油突破的具体时间、页岩油的分类原则与标准和中国陆相页岩油革命。研究认为,北美地区页岩油和致密油的概念在某种程度上是相同的;美国"页岩革命"的核心是提高钻完井效率、降低建井成本、提高单井产量,其工作模式发展阶段主要从井型的变化、水平井水平段长的变化和水力压裂的发展来划分;钻完井数是反映页岩油勘探开发活动的重要指标;页岩油开采的盈利模式与投资渠道关系紧密,美国公司追求尽快收回投资获取利润,普遍采用放压生产模式,产量递减快,生产曲线呈"L"型;在体制机制上,运用市场机制、"油公司+精益化管理"项目运营模式、建立共享开放的数据库等经验值得借鉴。从资源基础、工程技术能力和产量预期来看,中国具备陆相页岩油革命成功的基本条件,全力推进页岩油勘探开发的市场化、技术与管理方式变革,突出页岩油"质的发展与量的突破",切实将资源量转变为储量、将储量转化为效益产量,可以确保页岩油革命取得胜利。

关键词: 页岩革命, 页岩油, 递减曲线, 分类标准, 体制机制