Abstract: The concept of the effective economical recoverable resource is not yet considered in application of petroleum resource assessment,and the equilibrium among resource,reserve andproduction is not considered either in the decision of the long-term pian of production development and,sometimes,the production changes of developed oil provinces were extended topredict the future production changes of oil areas including new provinces.As a result,mis-leading may often occur in practice.An assessment method for effective economical recoverable resource and a;controlledprediction of "resource-reserve-production" and the feedback assessment system are proposedin this paper. They have resulted in some satisfactory results in compiling the long-termpetroleum development plan of our country and making history matching between productionand reserve of the major petroleum countries in the world.This system can be used to compile middle and long-term plans of oil and gas exploration and development.

Key words: evaluation of oil-gas resources, reserves, production, control prediction

摘要： 鉴于目前在应用石油资源量的评价结果时,往往没有考虑有效经济可采资源量的概念,在决策生产发展长远规划时也来考虑“资源量-储量-产量”之间的平衡关系.甚至有的以已开发老油区的产量变化规律,惯性外推预测包括新区在内的未来产量变化.这样容易造成失误.本文提出了一个有效经济可采资源量的评价方法和“资源量-储量-产量”的控制预测及其反馈评价系统.在编制我国石油长远发展规划和进行世界石油大国产量-储量关系的历史拟合中,都取得了令人满意的效果.该系统可供编制中长期油(气)勘探开发现划时使用.

关键词: 油气资源评价, 储量, 产量, 控制, 预测