关键词: 潜油电泵, 使用寿命, 故障, 统计模型, 可靠性, 定量评价, 数字仿真

Abstract: The lifetime of the electrical submersible pumping unit is the main factor affecting the overhaul period of electrical pumping unit.On the basis of the logic relation of all members of a pumping unit,a reliability model for electrical submersible pumping unit was developed.Adopting ordinary suppose test and faintness identification,the multi-selected suppose distribution in the digital failure simulation of the subsystem was counted up and concluded,and a statistical model with high reliability of the subsystem was obtained.The Monte-Carlo statistical model was used to do digital simulation to the system reliability,and the statistical lifetime Weibull distribution model for the electrical submersible pumping unit was obtained.The system reliability assessment may be realized using the statistical model.The function expression of the liquid production,water cut or moisture rate and the pump depth with the overhaul period of the electrical pumping unit was developed and applied to describe the relativity of each affecting factor with the overhaul period of electrical pumping unit.

Key words: electrical submersible pumping unit, lifetime, failure, statistical model, reliability, quantitative assessment, digital simulation