天然气管网韧性保供问题及其研究展望

doi:10.7623/syxb202012019

石油学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (12): 1665-1678.DOI: 10.7623/syxb202012019

天然气管网韧性保供问题及其研究展望

张劲军¹, 苏怀¹, 高鹏²

1. 中国石油大学(北京)油气管道输送安全国家工程实验室/城市油气输配技术北京市重点实验室北京 102249;
2. 国家石油天然气管网集团有限公司科技数字本部北京 100013

收稿日期:2020-05-07 修回日期:2020-10-03 出版日期:2020-12-25 发布日期:2021-01-06
通讯作者: 张劲军,男,1962年3月生,1982年获华东石油学院学士学位,1998年获石油大学(北京)博士学位,现为中国石油大学(北京)教授、博士生导师,主要从事油气管道输送技术科研与教学工作。Email:zhangjj@cup.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目（No.51904316）和中国石油大学（北京）科研基金项目（2462018YJRC038，2462020YXZZ045）资助。

Resilience-based supply assurance of natural gas pipeline networks and its research prospects

Zhang Jinjun¹, Su Huai¹, Gao Peng²

1. National Engineering Laboratory for Pipeline Safety;Beijing Key Laboratory of Urban Oil and Gas Distribution Technology, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China;
2. Science&Technology and Digital Department, National Petroleum and Natural Gas Pipe Network Group Co., Ltd., Beijing 100013, China

Received:2020-05-07 Revised:2020-10-03 Online:2020-12-25 Published:2021-01-06

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

天然气的供应保障对经济发展与社会稳定至关重要。天然气保供是资源、管网、需求上、中、下游一体化的复杂系统工程。国内外对天然气管网可靠性已开展了系列研究。但是，对于大规模复杂系统，基于概率安全思想的可靠性评价方法存在容易稀释小概率、高后果极端风险的本质缺陷。借鉴电网、供应链、交通运输等复杂系统的研究和实践，提出了天然气管网韧性保供的概念，即在可靠性基础上，增加管网系统脆弱性和系统经受干扰后恢复至既定功能的能力（恢复力）评价；总结了天然气管网和电网等复杂系统可靠性、脆弱性和恢复力研究的现状、存在问题和发展方向；同时指出，大数据、人工智能技术将助推天然气管网韧性保供理论的发展，使其成为智能化与市场化变革大背景下智慧管网技术的重要理论基础。

关键词: 天然气管网, 保供, 韧性, 可靠性, 脆弱性

Abstract:

Ensuring secure supply of natural gas, which is a complex systemic problem based on the integration of resources, pipeline networks and demands, is critical for maintaining economic development and society stability. Many works have been done in different countries for the reliability analysis of natural gas pipeline networks. However, the reliability assessment method, based on the probabilistic security concept, may suffer from the inherent deficits of underestimating the extreme events with low possibilities but high consequences. This is especially true for large and complex systems. Based on the findings and applications in the areas of power grids, supply chains and transportation systems, this paper proposes the concept of resilience-based supply assurance of natural gas pipeline network, by supplementing the reliability analysis with the concepts of vulnerability and restorability. Then, relevant researches in complex systems, e.g., natural gas pipeline networks and electric power grids, are summarized from the perspectives of status, problem and development. Besides, boosted by the novel technologies, such as Big Data and AI, the resilience-based assurance theory for natural gas supply will become an important theoretical foundation of smart technology for pipeline networks, under the revolution towards intelligentization and marketization.

Key words: natural gas pipeline network, supply assurance, resilience, reliability, vulnerability

中图分类号:

TE863

张劲军, 苏怀, 高鹏. 天然气管网韧性保供问题及其研究展望[J]. 石油学报, 2020, 41(12): 1665-1678.

Zhang Jinjun, Su Huai, Gao Peng. Resilience-based supply assurance of natural gas pipeline networks and its research prospects[J]. Acta Petrolei Sinica, 2020, 41(12): 1665-1678.

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天然气管网韧性保供问题及其研究展望

Resilience-based supply assurance of natural gas pipeline networks and its research prospects

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