全球油气资源评价历程及展望

doi:10.7623/syxb202208001

石油学报 ›› 2022, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (8): 1035-1048.DOI: 10.7623/syxb202208001

• 地质勘探 • 下一篇

全球油气资源评价历程及展望

窦立荣^1,2, 李大伟¹, 温志新¹, 王兆明¹, 米石云¹, 张倩¹

1. 中国石油勘探开发研究院北京 100083;
2. 中国石油国际勘探开发有限公司北京 100034

收稿日期:2022-04-05 修回日期:2022-06-13 出版日期:2022-08-25 发布日期:2022-09-05
通讯作者: 李大伟,男,1969年5月生,1996年获中国地质大学(北京)博士学位,现为中国石油勘探开发研究院高级工程师,主要从事全球油气资源评价、信息系统研制与应用。Email:leedw@petrochina.com.cn
作者简介:窦立荣,男,1965年8月生,2004年获中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所博士学位,现为中国石油勘探开发研究院教授级高级工程师,主要从事全球油气资源评价与海外重点领域油气勘探关键技术研究。Email:dlirong@petrochina.com.cn
基金资助:
中国石油天然气集团有限公司"十四五"科技专项"海外重点含油气盆地评价与勘探关键技术研究"(2021DJ31)资助。

History and outlook of global oil and gas resources evaluation

Dou Lirong^1,2, Li Dawei¹, Wen Zhixin¹, Wang Zhaoming¹, Mi Shiyun¹, Zhang Qian¹

1. PetroChina Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration and Development, Beijing 100083, China;
2. China National Oil and Gas Exploration and Development Company Ltd., Beijing 100034, China

Received:2022-04-05 Revised:2022-06-13 Online:2022-08-25 Published:2022-09-05

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 油气资源评价是基于对油气成藏地质条件的掌握和判断来预测未来油气资源潜力,对油公司实施国际化战略具有重要意义。根据评价方法、油气地质理论、勘探技术、发现的圈闭类型等要素,将全球油气资源评价发展历史划分成4个阶段:早期起步阶段(1900-1957年)、快速发展阶段(1958-1985年)、稳定发展阶段(1986-2007年)和中国参与阶段(2008-现今)。全球油气资源评价结果受不同阶段所采用的评价方法、资源评价范围、油气地质理论、地球物理和钻井等勘探技术以及油价和油气产量等因素的影响。通过对比分析中国石油天然气集团有限公司(中国石油)2020年、美国地质调查局(USGS)2012年和国际能源署(IEA)2019年的全球油气资源评价或统计结果,认为中国石油(2020)评价结果更加全面,但待发现可采资源量评价结果较IEA(2019)偏低。随着油气地质理论的发展和科技的进步,未来将不断有油气资源转化为油气储量和产量,全球油气资源评价方法将逐步实现以烃源岩为核心的"整体"评价为主,评价结果将实现"立体"呈现,评价对象将持续向"两深一非"(深水、深层和非常规)拓展,评价过程将突出"经济性"和"低碳"要求,大数据和人工智能技术在未来全球油气资源评价中也将发挥重要作用。

关键词: 常规油气资源, 非常规油气资源, 资源评价方法, 统计法, 成因法, 类比法, 发展趋势

Abstract: The evaluation of oil and gas resources is to predict the potential of oil and gas resources in the future based on the understanding and judgement of the geological conditions of hydrocarbon accumulation,which is of great significance for oil companies to implement the internationalization strategy.According to the evaluation methods,petroleum geological theories,exploration technologies,and types of discovered traps,the development history of global oil and gas resources evaluation can be divided into four stages:start-up (1900-1957),rapid development (1958-1985),stable development (1986-2007) and participation by China (2008-).The evaluation results of global oil and gas resources are affected by the evaluation methods used at different stages,the evaluation scope of resources,petroleum geological theories,exploration technologies such as geophysics and drilling,as well as oil price,and hydrocarbon production.After comparing and analyzing the evaluation or statistical results of global oil and gas resources of China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) in 2020,the United States Geological Survey (USGS) in 2012 and the International Energy Agency (IEA) in 2019,it is considered that the evaluation results of CNPC (2020) is more comprehensive,and the evaluation results of recoverable resources to be discovered are lower than those of IEA (2019).With the development of petroleum geological theories and the progress of science and technology,oil and gas resources will be continuously transformed into petroleum reserves and production in the future.The evaluation methods of global oil and gas resources will gradually focus on the overall evaluation of source rock as the core object,the evaluation results will be presented in a three-dimensional way,the evaluation objects will continuously expand to deep water,deep play and unconventional resources,the evaluation process will highlight the requirements in terms of "economy" and "low carbon" ;big data and artificial intelligence technology will also play an important role in the future evaluation of global oil and gas resources.

Key words: conventional oil and gas resources, unconventional oil and gas resources, resource evaluation method, statistical method, genetic method, analogy method, development trend

中图分类号:

TE155

窦立荣, 李大伟, 温志新, 王兆明, 米石云, 张倩. 全球油气资源评价历程及展望[J]. 石油学报, 2022, 43(8): 1035-1048.

Dou Lirong, Li Dawei, Wen Zhixin, Wang Zhaoming, Mi Shiyun, Zhang Qian. History and outlook of global oil and gas resources evaluation[J]. Acta Petrolei Sinica, 2022, 43(8): 1035-1048.

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全球油气资源评价历程及展望

History and outlook of global oil and gas resources evaluation

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