Abstract: The upstream petroleum industry in China has achieved remarkable success. The annual crude oil production of 2×10⁸ t is successively achieved under difficult resources conditions, and the natural gas production has achieved rapid growth, reaching 2 200×10⁸m³ in 2022. China has become the fourth largest gas producer in the world. Through exploring the exploration and development situation of oil and gas in China, this paper analyzes the theoretical and technical challenges faced by the upstream petroleum industry, and looks forward to the development prospects of domestic petroleum industry. China has realized oil-gas exploration and development in deep strata, deep water, and unconventional fields. It is predicted that China's crude oil output will be stable at 2×10⁸t, and natural gas production will be stable at 3 000×10⁸m³ in 2035. The development of the upstream petroleum industry in China faces theoretical and technical challenges from five major fields:deep strata, deep water, unconventional resources, enhanced oil recovery (EOR) of old oil-gas fields, and carbon capture and storage(CCS) or carbon capture, utilization and storage(CCUS) projects. The future development of petroleum industry will rely more on geological theories and technological innovations in exploration of deep strata, deep water, and unconventional fields. A new generation of theories, technologies, equipment, and efficient construction teams that are suitable for deep strata, deep water, and unconventional oil-gas exploration and development are the key to achieving the high-efficiency development with low cost. The advanced technology and equipment, which are applicable for deep layer, deep water, unconventional oil and gas exploration and development, as well as EOR of old oilfields and CCS/CCUS projects, will be essential to the development of petroleum industry in the future.

Key words: upstream petroleum industry, prospects for oil-gas exploration and development, theoretical and technical challenges, deep strata, deep water, unconventional oil-gas, enhanced oil recovery, carbon neutrality

摘要： 中国石油工业上游取得了举世瞩目的成就，在资源困难的条件下原油年产量保持在2×10⁸t水平，天然气产量实现了快速增长，2022年的天然气产量达2 200×10⁸m³。中国已成为世界第四大产气国。通过探讨中国石油天然气的勘探开发形势，分析中国石油工业上游面临的理论技术挑战，展望了未来中国石油工业的发展前景。中国油气勘探开发已全面进入深层、深水、非常规领域。预测直到2035年中国的原油产量将在2×10⁸t稳产，天然气产量将在3 000×10⁸m³稳产。中国石油工业上游的发展面临着来自深层、深水、非常规、老油气田提高采收率以及碳捕集与封存（CCS）/碳捕集、利用与封存（CCUS）五大领域的理论与技术挑战。未来石油工业的发展将更多地依靠深层、深水、非常规领域的油气地质理论和技术创新。形成新一代适应深层、深水、非常规油气勘探开发的理论、技术、装备与高效施工作业队伍是目前实现油气高效益、低成本开发的关键。先进的适应深层、深水、非常规油气勘探开发，以及老油田提高采收率和CCS/CCUS业务的技术与装备是未来一段时期发展的关键。

关键词: 石油工业上游, 油气勘探开发前景, 理论技术挑战, 深层, 深水, 非常规油气, 提高采收率, 碳中和