关键词: 油气产量, 组合预测, 新鲜度函数, 变权重, 模糊预测

Abstract: The numerous existing methods for prediction of oil and gas production were reviewed, and a multi-model combined forecast method based on fresh degree function was developed. This method was derived from the single-model prediction technique. The fresh degree function is brought into the multi-model combined forecast method, which can effectively describe the varying trend of the data list and improve the self-adaptive recurrent algorithm and fuzzy variable weight combined forecast method to some degree. So, the improved model can not only adopt useful data of different methods but also make the weight coefficient of combined forecast being time-varying. This method has the features of high precision and high accuracy of prediction, good adaptability and simplicity of calculation.

Key words: petroleum production, combined forecast method, fresh degree function, variable weight, fuzzy forecast