近20年全球油气勘探趋势分析与思考

doi:10.7623/syxb202605003

石油学报 ›› 2026, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (5): 974-992.DOI: 10.7623/syxb202605003

• 地质勘探 • 上一篇

近20年全球油气勘探趋势分析与思考

温志新¹, 窦立荣^1,2, 王兆明¹, 贺正军¹, 季天愚¹, 刘小兵¹, 宋成鹏¹, 陈瑞银¹, 耿珂¹

1. 中国石油勘探开发研究院北京 100083;
2. 中国石油国际勘探开发有限公司北京 100034

收稿日期:2025-11-12 修回日期:2025-12-29 发布日期:2026-06-09
通讯作者: 窦立荣,男,1965年8月生,2004年获中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所博士学位,现为中国石油勘探开发研究院教授级高级工程师,主要从事全球油气地质与海外重点领域油气勘探关键技术研究。Email:dlirong@petrochina.com.cn
作者简介:温志新,男,1968年6月生,2006年获中国地质大学(北京)博士学位,现为中国石油勘探开发研究院教授级高级工程师,主要从事全球含油气盆地分析与海外新项目评价技术研究工作。Email:wenzhixin@petrochina.com.cn
基金资助:
国家科技重大专项“新一轮全球油气资源智能化评价与综合选区技术”(2025ZD1400800)、中国石油天然气集团有限公司科技专项“海外油气地质新理论资源评价新技术与超前选区研究”(2023ZZ07)和“DE规模源储成因机制与分布规律”(2024ZZ5602)、中国石油国际勘探开发有限公司勘探研发项目“海外重点盆地成藏规律与风险勘探领域研究”(2025ZYGJCJ011)资助。

Analysis and reflection on global hydrocarbon exploration over the past two decades

Wen Zhixin¹, Dou Lirong^1,2, Wang Zhaoming¹, He Zhengjun¹, Ji Tianyu¹, Liu Xiaobing¹, Song Chengpeng¹, Chen Ruiyin¹, Geng Ke¹

1. PetroChina Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration & Development, Beijing 100083, China;
2. China National Oil and Gas Exploration and Development Company Ltd., Beijing 100034, China

Received:2025-11-12 Revised:2025-12-29 Published:2026-06-09

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于标普全球(S&P Global)、睿咨得能源(Rystad Energy)等商业数据库及全球油公司的公开信息,对2004—2024年全球油气的勘探投资、勘探区块授予、勘探钻井、油气新发现等进行系统分析。研究结果表明:勘探投资随着原油价格上涨先是经历了10年的上升期,随后进入低位稳定期,常规油气勘探以海域为主,非常规油气勘探聚焦页岩油气;常规油气探井数量在近年呈低位态势,探井的地质成功率总体稳定,高影响探井主要聚焦在非洲和拉美地区东部海域的深水—超深水领域;深水前沿盆地、深层—超深层和非常规成为全球油气增储的主要领域。基于近20年全球油气勘探的总体趋势,建议中国油公司发展跨国油气勘探业务:①持续强化海外上游业务,聚焦优质油气资产获取;②积极拓展全球深水—超深水勘探,抢占前沿有利领域;③依托技术优势,超前布局陆上深层—超深层富油气区;④积极评价陆上富油气盆地,坚持常规和非常规油气并举与立体勘探;⑤持续提前购买多用户地震数据,开展超前选区研究。

关键词: 勘探投资, 油气勘探形势, 油气发现, 深水, 深层, 非常规

Abstract: Based on commercial databases such as S&P Global and Rystad Energy, alongside public disclosures from international oil companies, this study provides a systematic analysis of global hydrocarbon exploration investment, block licensing, exploratory drilling, and new discoveries from 2004 to 2024. The results indicate that exploration investment underwent a decade of expansion driven by rising crude oil prices, followed by a period of low-level stabilization. Conventional exploration is currently dominated by offshore areas, whereas unconventional exploration is concentrated in shale oil and gas. While the number of conventional exploration wells has remained low in recent years, geological success rates have exhibited overall stability. High-impact wells are primarily located in deepwater to ultra-deepwater plays in Africa and the eastern offshore regions of Latin America. Furthermore, deepwater frontier basins, deep to ultra-deep reservoirs, and unconventional resources have emerged as the primary source for global reserve growth. Based on the overarching trends in global hydrocarbon exploration over the past two decades, several strategic recommendations are proposed for Chinese oil companies to advance their international exploration business: (1) continuously strengthening overseas upstream operations with a focus on acquiring premium oil and gas assets; (2) actively expanding into global deepwater and ultra-deepwater exploration to secure early-mover advantages in frontier domains; (3) leveraging technological competitive edges to strategically position within onshore deep and ultra-deep hydrocarbon-rich zones; (4) comprehensively evaluating onshore petroliferous basins, and maintaining a dual emphasis on conventional and unconventional resources through integrated multi-dimensional exploration; (5) consistently pre-purchase multi-client seismic data to facilitate proactive play-entry and site-selection research.

Key words: exploration investment, hydrocarbon exploration status, hydrocarbon discoveries, deep water, deep reservoir, unconventional

中图分类号:

TE132.1

温志新, 窦立荣, 王兆明, 贺正军, 季天愚, 刘小兵, 宋成鹏, 陈瑞银, 耿珂. 近20年全球油气勘探趋势分析与思考[J]. 石油学报, 2026, 47(5): 974-992.

Wen Zhixin, Dou Lirong, Wang Zhaoming, He Zhengjun, Ji Tianyu, Liu Xiaobing, Song Chengpeng, Chen Ruiyin, Geng Ke. Analysis and reflection on global hydrocarbon exploration over the past two decades[J]. Acta Petrolei Sinica, 2026, 47(5): 974-992.

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近20年全球油气勘探趋势分析与思考

Analysis and reflection on global hydrocarbon exploration over the past two decades

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