Abstract: In the context of the global energy transition and the "dual-carbon" targets, new energy systems enter into a phase of large-scale deployment and high-quality development. However, the collaborative development across technologies, systems, and spatial dimensions continues to face significant challenges. Focusing on the "four-green" new energy system, i.e., green electricity, green hydrogen, green storage, and green heat, this study proposes a four-dimensional evaluation framework encompassing the dimensions of technology, system, space, and institution. It systematically reviews improvements in wind-solar efficiency and changes in levelized cost of electricity, cost-lifetime characteristics of sodium-ion/flow batteries and long-duration energy storage, electrolyzer efficiency and green hydrogen integration demonstrations, as well as engineering progress in geothermal energy utilization, which were validated through authoritative data and case studies in recent years (2022 to 2025). The results indicate that onshore multi-megawatt and deep offshore wind power, tunnel oxide passivated contact (TOPCon) or heterojunction technology (HJT) solar cells, and tandem photovoltaics are rapidly entering mass production; sodium-ion/flow batteries and compressed air energy storage (CAES) tec hnologies complement each other across different time scales; proton exchange membrane (PEM) and solid oxide electrolysis cell (SOEC), coupled with green ammonia and green methanol, establish an integrated value chain; enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) demonstrate empirical improvements in injection-production efficiency and microseismic monitoring. Targeting the "Sustainable Triangle" encompassing "security-economy-cleanliness-resilience-synergy", the study proposes practical implementation pathways, including the coordination between capacity prices and ancillary services, the full-lifecycle certification for green hydrogen, the certification for geothermal injection-production and cycle, and synergistic management of land and water resources under the regulations of "three lines and one list" (red line for ecological protection, bottom line for environmental quality, upper line for resource utilization, and access list for ecological environment) and "four water-based principles" (planning land, city, industry, and population based on water resources). The study provides structured approaches and implementation proposals based on policy-engineering integration to facilitate value realization and replicable diffusion of new energy systems during China’s 14th and 15th Five-Year Plan periods. It argues that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period (2021 to 2025), new energy development should prioritize exploration and technological breakthroughs, while proving technical feasibility through validation, deploying demonstration projects, and laying the institutional foundation. During the "15th Five-Year Plan" period (2026 to 2030), new energy will enter a stage of large-scale and high-quality development, achieving a synergistic integration of cost competitiveness, performance excellence, and certification compliance, thus facilitating the value realization, replication and dissemination of new energy systems. This will provide theoretical support and actionable institutional and engineering pathways for China to achieve a high-quality leap in new energy development while ensuring energy security.

Key words: high-quality development of new energy, "four-green" new energy system, green electricity, green hydrogen, green storage, green heat

摘要： 在全球 能源转型与"碳达峰、碳中和(双碳)"目标背景下,新能源进入规模化与高质量发展阶段,但跨技术、跨系统与跨空间的协同发展仍面临瓶颈。围绕绿电、绿氢、绿储、绿热("四绿")新能源系统,提出了"技术-系统-空间-制度"四维评估框架,系统梳理了风光发电提效与度电成本变化、钠离子/液流电池与长时储能的成本-寿命特征、电解槽效率与绿氢一体化示范以及地热的工程化进展,并以近年 来(2022—2025年)的权威数据与案例加以验证。研究结果表明,陆上大型兆瓦级与深远海风电、隧道氧化物钝化接触电池(TOPCon)/异质结电池(HJT)及叠层光伏加速量产,钠离子/液流电池与压缩空气储能(CAES)在不同时域互补,质子交换膜(PEM)/固体氧化物电解池(SOEC)配合绿氨/绿醇等形成链式价值,增强型地热系统(EGS)在注采效率与微震监测方面取得实证进展。面向"安全-经济-清洁-韧性-协同"的"可持续三角",提出容量电价与辅助服务协同、绿氢全生命周期认证、地热注采与循环寿命认证以及"三线一单(生态保护红线、环境质量底线、资源利用上线和生态环境准入清单)+四水四定(以水定地、以水定城、以水定产业、以水定人口)"的用地、用水协同等落地路径。研究为中国在"十四五"(2021—2025年)至"十五五"(2026—2030年)阶段实现新能源系统价值兑现与可复制扩散提供了结构化方法与政策-工程结合的实施建议。研究认为:"十四五"(2021—2025年)时期新能源发展以探索与攻关为主线,完成技术验证、示范工程与制度打底;"十五五"(2026—2030年)时期新能源进入规模化与高质量发展阶段,实现"成本、性能、认证"三位一体,推动系统价值兑现与复制扩散,为中国在保障能源安全前提下实现新能源高质量跨越提供理论支撑与可操作的制度与工程路径。

关键词: 新能源高质量发展, 新能源四绿, 绿电, 绿氢, 绿储, 绿热