Abstract:

In petroleum exploration and development,decision-making is based on prediction of sized and spatial distribution of oil and gas pools as well as their reserves.This prediction is depended on both quality and quantity of information,which are quite different in defferent stages of exploration process.In this paper the characteristics of decision-making in the middle-later periods of exploration process are analyzed.Strategic and quantified management decisions are classified.Then,the applied prospects of fractal geometry for predicting the sizes and spatial distribution of oil and gas pools,and of geostatistics for reserve and risk evaluation in the middle-later periods of exploration process are discussed.Application and research of these new methods should be strengthened in petroleum exploration and development in the sedimentary basins of eastern China.

Key words: exploration, decision, resources evaluation, fractal geometry, statistical analysis

摘要：

在油气勘探开发中,科学决策的依据是由各种概念模型或数学模型给出的有关油气藏规模和空间分布的预测及储量的合理估算.根据油气勘探中、后期阶段决策的特点,把决策分为战略决策和管理决策,重点讨论了分形几何在油气藏规模分布和空间分布预测以支持战略决策方面的应用前景和地质统计学在储量计算、风险评价以支持管理决策方面的应用前景,并针对我国东部盆地处于勘探开发的中、后期,建议今后应加强有关方面的应用研究.

关键词: 勘探, 决策, 资源评价, 分形几何, 统计分析