中国煤层气地面井中长期生产规模的情景预测

doi:10.7623/syxb201303009

石油学报 ›› 2013, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (3): 489-495.DOI: 10.7623/syxb201303009

中国煤层气地面井中长期生产规模的情景预测

秦勇¹, 袁亮^2,3, 程远平³, 孟建兵², 申建¹

1. 中国矿业大学煤层气资源与成藏过程教育部重点实验室江苏徐州 221116;
2. 煤矿瓦斯治理国家工程研究中心安徽淮南 232001;
3. 中国矿业大学安全工程学院江苏徐州 221116

收稿日期:2012-11-08 修回日期:2013-02-18 出版日期:2013-05-25 发布日期:2013-04-09
通讯作者: 秦勇
作者简介:秦勇,男,1957年6月生,1981年毕业于焦作矿业学院,1992年获中国矿业大学博士学位,现为中国矿业大学教授、博士生导师,主要从事煤层气地质和开发战略研究工作。Email:yongqin@cumt.edu.cn
基金资助:
中国工程院重大战略咨询课题(2011ZD19-2)和国家重大科技专项(2011ZX05034)资助。

Scenario predication for the mid-term and long-term coalbed methane production scale of surface drilling wells in China

QIN Yong¹, YUAN Liang^2,3, CHENG Yuanping³, MENG Jianbing², SHEN Jian¹

1. Key Laboratory of CBM Resources & Reservoiring Process of the Ministry of Education, China University of Mining & Technology, Xuzhou 221116, China;
2. National Engineering Research Center for Coalmine Gas Control, Huainan 232001, China;
3. Faculty of Safety Engineering, China University of Mining & Technology, Xuzhou 221116, China

Received:2012-11-08 Revised:2013-02-18 Online:2013-05-25 Published:2013-04-09

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

采用情景分析这一基本方法分析了影响煤层气产业发展的情景因素,认为中国煤层气产业发展规模呈国家需求与技术进步双要素单向增长趋势,存在较低规模、基准规模、跨越规模3类可能的基本情景。根据中国煤层气产业发展现状并参考美国煤层气产业发展历史,进一步筛选出单井产量、钻井总数、投产井比例3个关键要素,对今后20年期间中国煤层气地面井产量进行了情景设计和模拟分析。研究认为,在技术较大进步情景下,未来4个五年计划末期的全国地面井产量规模可能分别为113×10⁸m³、252×10⁸m³、452×10⁸m³和624×10⁸m³。这种情景的实现,需要在现有基础上进一步强化国家产业政策的扶持,提高煤层气井增产技术进步的速度,加大煤层气基地产能建设的力度。

关键词: 煤层气, 地面井, 生产规模, 情景要素, 情景分析

Abstract:

Scenario factors influencing the development of the coalbed methane (CBM) industry in China were analyzed using a basic method of scenario analysis and a unidirectional growth trend of the dual elements (national demand and technical progress) for the China’s CBM industry scale was suggested, which has three possible basic scenarios, namely the junior scale, benchmarker scale and leaping scale. By taking the China's CBM industry status into account and making reference to the U.S. CBM industry history, we further screened three key elements including the individual well production, total well number and brought-in well proportion, designed and simulated production scenarios of the nationwide CBM surface wells in the next 20 years. It was suggested that by the ends of the next four five-year plans, the CBM production scale of the nationwide surface wells will likely reach to 11.3 billion, 25.2 billion, 45.2 billion and 62.4 billion cubic meters, respectively. The realization of such scenarios relies on strengthening the support of national industrial policies, speeding up the progress of CBM well production technologies and increasing the capacity building speed on the CBM production basis.

Key words: coalbed methane, surface well, production scale, scenario factor, scenario analysis

中图分类号:

TE122.2

秦勇, 袁亮, 程远平, 孟建兵, 申建. 中国煤层气地面井中长期生产规模的情景预测[J]. 石油学报, 2013, 34(3): 489-495.

QIN Yong, YUAN Liang, CHENG Yuanping, MENG Jianbing, SHEN Jian. Scenario predication for the mid-term and long-term coalbed methane production scale of surface drilling wells in China[J]. Editorial office of ACTA PETROLEI SINICA, 2013, 34(3): 489-495.

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中国煤层气地面井中长期生产规模的情景预测

Scenario predication for the mid-term and long-term coalbed methane production scale of surface drilling wells in China

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